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Universidad de Concepcion vs Union La Calera — Primera División 2018

Universidad de Concepcion
Universidad de Concepcion
CANC
00:00
Union La Calera
Union La Calera
12/21/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 25Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo (Concepción)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Universidad de Concepcion40%
×Draw28%
Union La Calera32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universidad de Concepcion
1.28
Union La Calera
1.12

Universidad de Concepcion creates 14% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 115 away

creates per match

Universidad de Concepcion
1.21
Union La Calera
1.12

allows per match

Universidad de Concepcion
1.12
Union La Calera
1.35

finishing

Universidad de Concepcion+0.00on par
Union La Calera+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad de Concepcion ↓

Union La Calera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Universidad de Concepcion or draw
68%
Universidad de Concepcion or Union La Calera
72%
Draw or Union La Calera
60%

Winning margin

Universidad de Concepcion wins by 2+
18%
Union La Calera wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Universidad de Concepcion 1+ goals
72%
Universidad de Concepcion 2+ goals
37%
Universidad de Concepcion 3+ goals
14%
Union La Calera 1+ goals
67%
Union La Calera 2+ goals
31%
Union La Calera 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Universidad de Concepcion (draw refunded)
55%
Union La Calera (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad de Concepcion at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.12 · 42 matches

Union La Calera away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.35 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad de Concepcion attack 1.21 + Union La Calera defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.28

Union La Calera attack 1.12 + Universidad de Concepcion defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Universidad de Concepcion scores more
40%
level
28%
Union La Calera scores more
32%

Universidad de Concepcion at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Universidad de Concepcion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Universidad de Concepcion host Union La Calera

December 21, 2019: Universidad de Concepcion take on Union La Calera in Primera División. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Universidad de Concepcion host Union La Calera at Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo (Concepción).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.