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Union La Calera vs Universidad de Concepcion — Primera División 2018

Union La Calera
Union La Calera
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Universidad de Concepcion
Universidad de Concepcion
4/13/2018Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 9Estadio Lucio Farina Fernandez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Union La Calera46%
×Draw25%
Universidad de Concepcion29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union La Calera
1.54
Universidad de Concepcion
1.16

Union La Calera creates 33% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 44 away

creates per match

Union La Calera
1.35
Universidad de Concepcion
1.11

allows per match

Union La Calera
1.20
Universidad de Concepcion
1.73

finishing

Union La Calera+0.00on par
Universidad de Concepcion+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union La Calera ↓

Universidad de Concepcion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Union La Calera or draw
71%
Union La Calera or Universidad de Concepcion
75%
Draw or Universidad de Concepcion
54%

Winning margin

Union La Calera wins by 2+
23%
Universidad de Concepcion wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Union La Calera 1+ goals
79%
Union La Calera 2+ goals
45%
Union La Calera 3+ goals
20%
Universidad de Concepcion 1+ goals
69%
Universidad de Concepcion 2+ goals
32%
Universidad de Concepcion 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Union La Calera (draw refunded)
62%
Universidad de Concepcion (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union La Calera at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.20 · 120 matches

Universidad de Concepcion away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.73 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union La Calera attack 1.35 + Universidad de Concepcion defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.54

Universidad de Concepcion attack 1.11 + Union La Calera defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Union La Calera scores more
46%
level
25%
Universidad de Concepcion scores more
29%

Union La Calera at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Union La Calera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Union La Calera 1–3 Universidad de Concepcion

Universidad de Concepcion beat Union La Calera 3-1 in Primera División on April 13, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Lucio Farina Fernandez in Quillota.