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Universidad de Concepcion vs San Marcos de Arica — Primera B 2026

Universidad de Concepcion
Universidad de Concepcion
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
San Marcos de Arica
San Marcos de Arica
9/4/2023Primera BPrimera B · Round 25Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Universidad de Concepcion44%
×Draw26%
San Marcos de Arica29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universidad de Concepcion
1.42
San Marcos de Arica
1.10

Universidad de Concepcion creates 29% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 91 away

creates per match

Universidad de Concepcion
1.42
San Marcos de Arica
1.11

allows per match

Universidad de Concepcion
1.10
San Marcos de Arica
1.41

finishing

Universidad de Concepcion+0.00on par
San Marcos de Arica+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad de Concepcion ↓

San Marcos de Arica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Universidad de Concepcion or draw
71%
Universidad de Concepcion or San Marcos de Arica
74%
Draw or San Marcos de Arica
56%

Winning margin

Universidad de Concepcion wins by 2+
21%
San Marcos de Arica wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Universidad de Concepcion 1+ goals
76%
Universidad de Concepcion 2+ goals
41%
Universidad de Concepcion 3+ goals
17%
San Marcos de Arica 1+ goals
67%
San Marcos de Arica 2+ goals
30%
San Marcos de Arica 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Universidad de Concepcion (draw refunded)
60%
San Marcos de Arica (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad de Concepcion at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.10 · 77 matches

San Marcos de Arica away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.41 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad de Concepcion attack 1.42 + San Marcos de Arica defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.42

San Marcos de Arica attack 1.11 + Universidad de Concepcion defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Universidad de Concepcion scores more
44%
level
26%
San Marcos de Arica scores more
29%

Universidad de Concepcion at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Universidad de Concepcion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: Universidad de Concepcion 2–1 San Marcos de Arica

Universidad de Concepcion beat San Marcos de Arica 2-1 in Primera B on September 4, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo in Concepción.