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San Marcos de Arica vs Universidad de Concepcion — Primera B 2026

San Marcos de Arica
San Marcos de Arica
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Universidad de Concepcion
Universidad de Concepcion
7/20/2024Primera BPrimera B · Round 17Estadio Carlos Dittborn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

San Marcos de Arica44%
×Draw27%
Universidad de Concepcion29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Marcos de Arica
1.36
Universidad de Concepcion
1.04

San Marcos de Arica creates 31% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 77 away

creates per match

San Marcos de Arica
1.34
Universidad de Concepcion
0.99

allows per match

San Marcos de Arica
1.08
Universidad de Concepcion
1.38

finishing

San Marcos de Arica+0.00on par
Universidad de Concepcion+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Marcos de Arica ↓

Universidad de Concepcion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

San Marcos de Arica or draw
71%
San Marcos de Arica or Universidad de Concepcion
73%
Draw or Universidad de Concepcion
56%

Winning margin

San Marcos de Arica wins by 2+
21%
Universidad de Concepcion wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

San Marcos de Arica 1+ goals
74%
San Marcos de Arica 2+ goals
39%
San Marcos de Arica 3+ goals
16%
Universidad de Concepcion 1+ goals
65%
Universidad de Concepcion 2+ goals
28%
Universidad de Concepcion 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

San Marcos de Arica (draw refunded)
61%
Universidad de Concepcion (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Marcos de Arica at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.08 · 91 matches

Universidad de Concepcion away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.38 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Marcos de Arica attack 1.34 + Universidad de Concepcion defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.36

Universidad de Concepcion attack 0.99 + San Marcos de Arica defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

San Marcos de Arica scores more
44%
level
27%
Universidad de Concepcion scores more
29%

San Marcos de Arica at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "San Marcos de Arica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: San Marcos de Arica 1–1 Universidad de Concepcion

San Marcos de Arica and Universidad de Concepcion drew 1-1 in Primera B on July 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Carlos Dittborn in Arica.