Universidad de Concepcion 1–0 Fernández Vial

Universidad de Concepcion

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Fernández Vial

7/2/2023

Copa Chile · Regional Quarter-finalsEstadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Universidad de Concepcion39%

×Draw28%

Fernández Vial33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universidad de ConcepcionExpected goals in this matchFernández Vial

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.13

Universidad de Concepcion

1.25

Fernández Vial

1.13

Universidad de Concepcion creates 11% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 6 away

1.17

creates per match

1.00

1.25

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Universidad de Concepcion

1.17

Fernández Vial

1.00

allows per match

Universidad de Concepcion

1.25

Fernández Vial

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universidad de Concepcion+0.00on par

Fernández Vial+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad de Concepcion ↓

Fernández Vial →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Universidad de Concepcion or draw

67%

Universidad de Concepcion or Fernández Vial

72%

Draw or Fernández Vial

61%

Winning margin

Universidad de Concepcion wins by 2+

17%

Fernández Vial wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Universidad de Concepcion 1+ goals

71%

Universidad de Concepcion 2+ goals

36%

Universidad de Concepcion 3+ goals

13%

Fernández Vial 1+ goals

68%

Fernández Vial 2+ goals

31%

Fernández Vial 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Universidad de Concepcion (draw refunded)

54%

Fernández Vial (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad de Concepcion at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

Fernández Vial away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad de Concepcion attack 1.17 + Fernández Vial defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Fernández Vial attack 1.00 + Universidad de Concepcion defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Universidad de Concepcion scores more

39%

level

28%

Fernández Vial scores more

33%

Universidad de Concepcion at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Universidad de Concepcion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff