Universidad de Concepcion 2–2 Fernández Vial

Universidad de Concepcion

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Fernández Vial

4/4/2022

Primera B · Round 7Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Universidad de Concepcion44%

×Draw27%

Fernández Vial30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universidad de ConcepcionExpected goals in this matchFernández Vial

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.10

Universidad de Concepcion

1.40

Fernández Vial

1.10

Universidad de Concepcion creates 27% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 31 away

1.42

creates per match

1.10

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Universidad de Concepcion

1.42

Fernández Vial

1.10

allows per match

Universidad de Concepcion

1.10

Fernández Vial

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universidad de Concepcion+0.00on par

Fernández Vial+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad de Concepcion ↓

Fernández Vial →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Universidad de Concepcion or draw

70%

Universidad de Concepcion or Fernández Vial

73%

Draw or Fernández Vial

56%

Winning margin

Universidad de Concepcion wins by 2+

21%

Fernández Vial wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Universidad de Concepcion 1+ goals

75%

Universidad de Concepcion 2+ goals

41%

Universidad de Concepcion 3+ goals

17%

Fernández Vial 1+ goals

67%

Fernández Vial 2+ goals

30%

Fernández Vial 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Universidad de Concepcion (draw refunded)

60%

Fernández Vial (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad de Concepcion at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.10 · 77 matches

Fernández Vial away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.39 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad de Concepcion attack 1.42 + Fernández Vial defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.40

Fernández Vial attack 1.10 + Universidad de Concepcion defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Universidad de Concepcion scores more

44%

level

27%

Fernández Vial scores more

30%

Universidad de Concepcion at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Universidad de Concepcion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff