Universidad de Concepcion 0–0 Everton de Vina

Universidad de Concepcion

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Everton de Vina

12/28/2020

Primera División · Round 26Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Universidad de Concepcion41%

×Draw27%

Everton de Vina32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universidad de ConcepcionExpected goals in this matchEverton de Vina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.12

Universidad de Concepcion

1.31

Everton de Vina

1.12

Universidad de Concepcion creates 17% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 117 away

1.21

creates per match

1.11

1.12

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Universidad de Concepcion

1.21

Everton de Vina

1.11

allows per match

Universidad de Concepcion

1.12

Everton de Vina

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universidad de Concepcion+0.00on par

Everton de Vina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad de Concepcion ↓

Everton de Vina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Universidad de Concepcion or draw

68%

Universidad de Concepcion or Everton de Vina

73%

Draw or Everton de Vina

59%

Winning margin

Universidad de Concepcion wins by 2+

19%

Everton de Vina wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Universidad de Concepcion 1+ goals

73%

Universidad de Concepcion 2+ goals

38%

Universidad de Concepcion 3+ goals

14%

Everton de Vina 1+ goals

67%

Everton de Vina 2+ goals

31%

Everton de Vina 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Universidad de Concepcion (draw refunded)

56%

Everton de Vina (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad de Concepcion at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.12 · 42 matches

Everton de Vina away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.41 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad de Concepcion attack 1.21 + Everton de Vina defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.31

Everton de Vina attack 1.11 + Universidad de Concepcion defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Universidad de Concepcion scores more

41%

level

27%

Everton de Vina scores more

32%

Universidad de Concepcion at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Universidad de Concepcion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

G. Reyes

Universidad de Concepcion · G

8.3

Match Events

11'

Walter González

16'

Eric Godoy

21'

C. Menéndez← W. González

30'

46'

53'

56'

56'

61'

61'

66'

79'

F. Neira← B. Carvallo

83'

K. Figueroa← Á. Madrid

90'

Benjamín Rivera

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UniversidadEverton

Overview

37%Possession63%

7Total Shots25

1Corners10

12Fouls8

Shots

7Total Shots25

0On Target7

5Off Target11

2Blocked7

4Inside Box13

3Outside Box12

Passing

37%Possession63%

310Total Passes511

210Accurate Passes421

68%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

7Saves0

Discipline

12Fouls8

3Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1