Everton de Vina 1–0 Universidad de Concepcion

Everton de Vina

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Universidad de Concepcion

Á. Madrid 58'

8/11/2018

Primera División · Round 19Sausalito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Everton de Vina45%

×Draw27%

Universidad de Concepcion28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Everton de VinaExpected goals in this matchUniversidad de Concepcion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.06

Everton de Vina

1.42

Universidad de Concepcion

1.06

Everton de Vina creates 34% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 44 away

1.11

creates per match

1.11

1.01

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Everton de Vina

1.11

Universidad de Concepcion

1.11

allows per match

Everton de Vina

1.01

Universidad de Concepcion

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Everton de Vina+0.00on par

Universidad de Concepcion+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Everton de Vina ↓

Universidad de Concepcion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Everton de Vina or draw

72%

Everton de Vina or Universidad de Concepcion

73%

Draw or Universidad de Concepcion

55%

Winning margin

Everton de Vina wins by 2+

22%

Universidad de Concepcion wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Everton de Vina 1+ goals

76%

Everton de Vina 2+ goals

41%

Everton de Vina 3+ goals

17%

Universidad de Concepcion 1+ goals

65%

Universidad de Concepcion 2+ goals

29%

Universidad de Concepcion 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Everton de Vina (draw refunded)

62%

Universidad de Concepcion (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Everton de Vina at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.01 · 113 matches

Universidad de Concepcion away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.73 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Everton de Vina attack 1.11 + Universidad de Concepcion defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.42

Universidad de Concepcion attack 1.11 + Everton de Vina defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Everton de Vina scores more

45%

level

27%

Universidad de Concepcion scores more

28%

Everton de Vina at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Everton de Vina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

C. Suarez

Everton de Vina · D

8.0

Match Events

45'

Patricio Rubio

58'

Á. Madrid↳ J. Cuevas

59'

L. Riveros← W. Ponce

68'

D. Orellana← A. Ibacache

68'

S. Pino← J. Benítez

76'

S. Leyton← J. Cuevas

80'

J. Huentelaf← F. Manríquez

81'

G. Alucema← Á. Madrid

82'

87'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EvertonUniversidad

Overview

46%Possession54%

13Total Shots12

4Corners1

14Fouls18

Shots

13Total Shots12

7On Target2

4Off Target6

2Blocked4

5Inside Box7

8Outside Box5

Passing

46%Possession54%

351Total Passes408

236Accurate Passes276

67%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

14Fouls18

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

7Offsides1