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Universidad de Concepcion vs Deportes Valdivia — Copa Chile 2019

Universidad de Concepcion
Universidad de Concepcion
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Deportes Valdivia
Deportes Valdivia
6/12/2019Copa ChileCopa Chile · 2nd RoundEstadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Universidad de Concepcion35%
×Draw27%
Deportes Valdivia37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universidad de Concepcion
1.21
Deportes Valdivia
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 4 away

creates per match

Universidad de Concepcion
1.17
Deportes Valdivia
1.25

allows per match

Universidad de Concepcion
1.25
Deportes Valdivia
1.25

finishing

Universidad de Concepcion+0.00on par
Deportes Valdivia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad de Concepcion ↓

Deportes Valdivia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Universidad de Concepcion or draw
63%
Universidad de Concepcion or Deportes Valdivia
73%
Draw or Deportes Valdivia
65%

Winning margin

Universidad de Concepcion wins by 2+
15%
Deportes Valdivia wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Universidad de Concepcion 1+ goals
70%
Universidad de Concepcion 2+ goals
34%
Universidad de Concepcion 3+ goals
12%
Deportes Valdivia 1+ goals
71%
Deportes Valdivia 2+ goals
36%
Deportes Valdivia 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Universidad de Concepcion (draw refunded)
49%
Deportes Valdivia (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad de Concepcion at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

Deportes Valdivia away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad de Concepcion attack 1.17 + Deportes Valdivia defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

Deportes Valdivia attack 1.25 + Universidad de Concepcion defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Universidad de Concepcion scores more
35%
level
27%
Deportes Valdivia scores more
37%

Deportes Valdivia at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Deportes Valdivia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Universidad de Concepcion vs Deportes Valdivia

Universidad de Concepcion and Deportes Valdivia drew 1-1 in Copa Chile on June 12, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo in Concepción.