Deportes Valdivia 0–0 Universidad de Concepcion

Deportes Valdivia

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Universidad de Concepcion

6/9/2019

Copa Chile · 2nd RoundEstadio El Parque Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Deportes Valdivia19%

×Draw24%

Universidad de Concepcion56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportes ValdiviaExpected goals in this matchUniversidad de Concepcion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.86

1.67

Deportes Valdivia

0.86

Universidad de Concepcion

1.67

Universidad de Concepcion creates 94% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 16 away

0.60

creates per match

1.94

1.40

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Deportes Valdivia

0.60

Universidad de Concepcion

1.94

allows per match

Deportes Valdivia

1.40

Universidad de Concepcion

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportes Valdivia+0.00on par

Universidad de Concepcion+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Valdivia ↓

Universidad de Concepcion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–113%

0–211%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Deportes Valdivia or draw

44%

Deportes Valdivia or Universidad de Concepcion

76%

Draw or Universidad de Concepcion

81%

Winning margin

Deportes Valdivia wins by 2+

6%

Universidad de Concepcion wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Deportes Valdivia 1+ goals

58%

Deportes Valdivia 2+ goals

21%

Deportes Valdivia 3+ goals

6%

Universidad de Concepcion 1+ goals

81%

Universidad de Concepcion 2+ goals

50%

Universidad de Concepcion 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Deportes Valdivia (draw refunded)

25%

Universidad de Concepcion (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Valdivia at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Universidad de Concepcion away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Valdivia attack 0.60 + Universidad de Concepcion defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.86

Universidad de Concepcion attack 1.94 + Deportes Valdivia defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Deportes Valdivia scores more

19%

level

24%

Universidad de Concepcion scores more

56%

Universidad de Concepcion at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Universidad de Concepcion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff