Universidad de Concepcion 2–0 D. La Serena

Universidad de Concepcion

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

D. La Serena

M. Pérez 80'

M. Donoso 44'

8/11/2023

Primera B · Round 22Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Universidad de Concepcion39%

×Draw27%

D. La Serena34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universidad de ConcepcionExpected goals in this matchD. La Serena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.16

Universidad de Concepcion

1.27

D. La Serena

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 47 away

1.42

creates per match

1.21

1.10

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Universidad de Concepcion

1.42

D. La Serena

1.21

allows per match

Universidad de Concepcion

1.10

D. La Serena

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universidad de Concepcion+0.00on par

D. La Serena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad de Concepcion ↓

D. La Serena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Universidad de Concepcion or draw

66%

Universidad de Concepcion or D. La Serena

73%

Draw or D. La Serena

61%

Winning margin

Universidad de Concepcion wins by 2+

17%

D. La Serena wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Universidad de Concepcion 1+ goals

72%

Universidad de Concepcion 2+ goals

36%

Universidad de Concepcion 3+ goals

14%

D. La Serena 1+ goals

69%

D. La Serena 2+ goals

32%

D. La Serena 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Universidad de Concepcion (draw refunded)

54%

D. La Serena (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad de Concepcion at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.10 · 77 matches

D. La Serena away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.13 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad de Concepcion attack 1.42 + D. La Serena defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.27

D. La Serena attack 1.21 + Universidad de Concepcion defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Universidad de Concepcion scores more

39%

level

27%

D. La Serena scores more

34%

Universidad de Concepcion at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Universidad de Concepcion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

22'

44'

45+3'

46'

P. Sanhueza← S. Sandoval

46'

S. Gallegos← K. Medel

46'

F. Espinoza← E. Espinoza

68'

G. Reyes← R. Paredes

72'

J. Saldías← R. González

74'

80'

80'

83'

90'

90+1'

G. Santelices← F. Saavedra

90+1'

L. Alarcón← H. Sanhueza

Universidad

D.

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Donoso

⚽

Pérez

Manager: M. Ramírez

46'▲P. Sanhueza←▼S. Sandoval

46'▲S. Gallegos←▼K. Medel

72'▲J. Saldías←▼R. González

74'▲S. Díaz←▼S. Molina

80'▲I. Ibáñez←▼M. Donoso

Universidad de Concepcion substitutes

SanhuezaGallegosSaldíasDíazIbáñezAstudilloAraya

Manager: J. Luvera

46'▲F. Espinoza←▼E. Espinoza

68'▲G. Reyes←▼R. Paredes

83'▲D. Arias←▼F. Miranda

90+1'▲G. Santelices←▼F. Saavedra

90+1'▲L. Alarcón←▼H. Sanhueza

D. La Serena substitutes

EspinozaReyesAriasSantelicesAlarcónTapiaCarreño

Match Recap: Universidad de Concepcion vs D. La Serena

Universidad de Concepcion beat D. La Serena 2-0 in Primera B on August 11, 2023.

Goals: M. Donoso (44'), M. Pérez (80').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo in Concepción.

Universidad de Concepcion vs D. La Serena — Primera B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Universidad de Concepcion vs D. La Serena