D. La Serena 1–0 Universidad de Concepcion

D. La Serena

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Universidad de Concepcion

S. Mederos 8'

3/27/2023

Primera B · Round 7Estadio La Portada de La Serena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

D. La Serena50%

×Draw27%

Universidad de Concepcion23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

D. La SerenaExpected goals in this matchUniversidad de Concepcion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.84

D. La Serena

1.40

Universidad de Concepcion

0.84

D. La Serena creates 67% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 77 away

1.43

creates per match

0.99

0.70

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

D. La Serena

1.43

Universidad de Concepcion

0.99

allows per match

D. La Serena

0.70

Universidad de Concepcion

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

D. La Serena+0.00on par

Universidad de Concepcion+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

D. La Serena ↓

Universidad de Concepcion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

D. La Serena or draw

77%

D. La Serena or Universidad de Concepcion

73%

Draw or Universidad de Concepcion

50%

Winning margin

D. La Serena wins by 2+

24%

Universidad de Concepcion wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

D. La Serena 1+ goals

75%

D. La Serena 2+ goals

41%

D. La Serena 3+ goals

17%

Universidad de Concepcion 1+ goals

57%

Universidad de Concepcion 2+ goals

21%

Universidad de Concepcion 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

D. La Serena (draw refunded)

69%

Universidad de Concepcion (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

D. La Serena at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.70 · 47 matches

Universidad de Concepcion away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.38 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

D. La Serena attack 1.43 + Universidad de Concepcion defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.40

Universidad de Concepcion attack 0.99 + D. La Serena defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

D. La Serena scores more

50%

level

27%

Universidad de Concepcion scores more

23%

D. La Serena at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "D. La Serena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

S. Mederos

45+3'

54'

L. Molina← H. Astudillo

54'

S. Molina← S. Sandoval

62'

J. Patiño← A. San Martín

65'

D. Arias← J. Sánchez

66'

F. Orellana

66'

R. Paredes← E. Espinoza

73'

D. Arias

76'

E. Ahumada← C. Navarrete

77'

H. Sanhueza

79'

C. Rodriguez

81'

F. I. Saavedra Saavedra

82'

J. Reyes← K. Flores

90+4'

G. Santelices← F. Saavedra

90+4'

R. Palacios← S. Mederos

D.

Universidad

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. Luvera

65'▲D. Arias←▼J. Sánchez

66'▲R. Paredes←▼E. Espinoza

82'▲J. Reyes←▼K. Flores

90+4'▲G. Santelices←▼F. Saavedra

90+4'▲R. Palacios←▼S. Mederos

D. La Serena substitutes

AriasParedesReyesSantelicesPalaciosSanhuezaReyes

Manager: M. Ramírez

54'▲L. Molina←▼H. Astudillo

54'▲S. Molina←▼S. Sandoval

62'▲J. Patiño←▼A. San Martín

76'▲E. Ahumada←▼C. Navarrete

Universidad de Concepcion substitutes

MolinaMolinaPatiñoAhumadaMoralesSanhuezaMedel

Primera B: D. La Serena 1–0 Universidad de Concepcion

D. La Serena beat Universidad de Concepcion 1-0 in Primera B on March 27, 2023.

Goals: S. Mederos (8').

The match was played at Estadio La Portada de La Serena in La Serena.

D. La Serena vs Universidad de Concepcion — Primera B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera B: D. La Serena 1–0 Universidad de Concepcion