Universidad de Concepcion 2–1 Coquimbo Unido

Universidad de Concepcion

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Coquimbo Unido

C. Waterman 23' (pen), 11'

R. Farfan 42'

2/7/2021

Primera División · Round 32Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Universidad de Concepcion42%

×Draw28%

Coquimbo Unido30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universidad de ConcepcionExpected goals in this matchCoquimbo Unido

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.05

Universidad de Concepcion

1.29

Coquimbo Unido

1.05

Universidad de Concepcion creates 23% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 97 away

1.20

creates per match

1.13

0.98

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Universidad de Concepcion

1.20

Coquimbo Unido

1.13

allows per match

Universidad de Concepcion

0.98

Coquimbo Unido

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universidad de Concepcion+0.00on par

Coquimbo Unido+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad de Concepcion ↓

Coquimbo Unido →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Universidad de Concepcion or draw

70%

Universidad de Concepcion or Coquimbo Unido

72%

Draw or Coquimbo Unido

58%

Winning margin

Universidad de Concepcion wins by 2+

19%

Coquimbo Unido wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Universidad de Concepcion 1+ goals

72%

Universidad de Concepcion 2+ goals

37%

Universidad de Concepcion 3+ goals

14%

Coquimbo Unido 1+ goals

65%

Coquimbo Unido 2+ goals

28%

Coquimbo Unido 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Universidad de Concepcion (draw refunded)

58%

Coquimbo Unido (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad de Concepcion at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.98 · 51 matches

Coquimbo Unido away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad de Concepcion attack 1.20 + Coquimbo Unido defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.29

Coquimbo Unido attack 1.13 + Universidad de Concepcion defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Universidad de Concepcion scores more

42%

level

28%

Coquimbo Unido scores more

30%

Universidad de Concepcion at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Universidad de Concepcion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Cecilio Waterman

Universidad de Concepcion · F

8.9

Match Events

10'

R. Farfan

11'

C. Waterman↳ S. Ramirez

13'

A. Camargo

20'

M. Cano

22'

D. Vallejos← G. Orellana

23'

C. WatermanPenalty

37'

42'

45+2'

45+5'

67'

D. Aravena← J. Espinoza

77'

L. Povea← M. Quinteros

82'

J. Abrigo← L. Palacios

83'

N. Berardo← V. Gonzalez

83'

L. Figueroa← G. Iniguez

86'

J. Carreno← H. Cavero

90+2'

V. Gonzalez

90+4'

B. A. Carvallo U.← A. E. Ramirez Cuevas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UniversidadCoquimbo

Overview

52%Possession48%

12Total Shots16

5Corners8

8Fouls8

Shots

12Total Shots16

3On Target6

6Off Target5

3Blocked5

5Inside Box12

7Outside Box4

Passing

52%Possession48%

464Total Passes413

380Accurate Passes314

82%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls8

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

5Offsides0

Match Recap: Universidad de Concepcion vs Coquimbo Unido

Universidad de Concepcion beat Coquimbo Unido 2-1 in Primera División on February 7, 2021.

Goals: C. Waterman (11', 23' pen), R. Farfan (42').

Universidad de Concepcion controlled possession (52%) and registered 12 shots to 16.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo in Concepción.

Universidad de Concepcion vs Coquimbo Unido — Primera División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Universidad de Concepcion vs Coquimbo Unido