Coquimbo Unido vs Universidad de Concepcion — Primera B 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 21+ matches
Coquimbo Unido51%
Universidad de Concepcion22%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Coquimbo Unido creates 68% more chances
Season form · 21 home / 77 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under60
- Over40
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No56
- Yes44
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Coquimbo Unido ↓
Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Coquimbo Unido at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.71 · 21 matches
Universidad de Concepcion away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.38 · 77 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Coquimbo Unido attack 1.48 + Universidad de Concepcion defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.43
Universidad de Concepcion attack 0.99 + Coquimbo Unido defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.85
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 51%?"
Coquimbo Unido at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 51% does not mean "Coquimbo Unido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Cobreloa
San Marcos de Arica
Antofagasta
Santiago Wanderers
Deportes Copiapo
Magallanes
San Luis
Deportes Temuco
Concepción
Recoleta
Union San Felipe
Curico UnidoUniversidad de Concepcion
Deportes Santa Cruz
Rangers de Talca
D. Puerto Montt
Union Espanola
Santiago Morning
Deportes IquiqueIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Coquimbo Unido host Universidad de Concepcion on Monday, 10 May 2021 at 16:00. The match is part of the Primera B 2018/2019 season.
Primera B: Coquimbo Unido 1–0 Universidad de Concepcion
Coquimbo Unido beat Universidad de Concepcion 1-0 in Primera B on May 10, 2021.
Goals: L. Garate (20').
The match was played at Estadio Elías Figueroa Brander in Valparaíso.