Universidad de Chile 1–2 U. Catolica

Universidad de Chile

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

U. Catolica

5/18/2024

Primera División · Round 13Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Universidad de Chile40%

×Draw26%

U. Catolica34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universidad de ChileExpected goals in this matchU. Catolica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.25

Universidad de Chile

1.38

U. Catolica

1.25

Universidad de Chile creates 10% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 129 away

1.57

creates per match

1.50

1.01

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Universidad de Chile

1.57

U. Catolica

1.50

allows per match

Universidad de Chile

1.01

U. Catolica

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universidad de Chile+0.00on par

U. Catolica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad de Chile ↓

U. Catolica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Universidad de Chile or draw

66%

Universidad de Chile or U. Catolica

74%

Draw or U. Catolica

60%

Winning margin

Universidad de Chile wins by 2+

19%

U. Catolica wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Universidad de Chile 1+ goals

75%

Universidad de Chile 2+ goals

40%

Universidad de Chile 3+ goals

16%

U. Catolica 1+ goals

71%

U. Catolica 2+ goals

36%

U. Catolica 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Universidad de Chile (draw refunded)

54%

U. Catolica (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad de Chile at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.01 · 127 matches

U. Catolica away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.19 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad de Chile attack 1.57 + U. Catolica defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.38

U. Catolica attack 1.50 + Universidad de Chile defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Universidad de Chile scores more

40%

level

26%

U. Catolica scores more

34%

Universidad de Chile at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Universidad de Chile will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff