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U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile — Primera División 2018

U. Catolica
U. Catolica
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Universidad de Chile
Universidad de Chile
10/26/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 25Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 126+ matches

U. Catolica49%
×Draw25%
Universidad de Chile26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U. Catolica
1.60
Universidad de Chile
1.09

U. Catolica creates 47% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 128 away

creates per match

U. Catolica
1.83
Universidad de Chile
1.27

allows per match

U. Catolica
0.92
Universidad de Chile
1.37

finishing

U. Catolica+0.00on par
Universidad de Chile+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U. Catolica ↓

Universidad de Chile →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

U. Catolica or draw
74%
U. Catolica or Universidad de Chile
75%
Draw or Universidad de Chile
51%

Winning margin

U. Catolica wins by 2+
26%
Universidad de Chile wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

U. Catolica 1+ goals
80%
U. Catolica 2+ goals
47%
U. Catolica 3+ goals
22%
Universidad de Chile 1+ goals
66%
Universidad de Chile 2+ goals
30%
Universidad de Chile 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

U. Catolica (draw refunded)
65%
Universidad de Chile (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U. Catolica at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.92 · 126 matches

Universidad de Chile away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.37 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U. Catolica attack 1.83 + Universidad de Chile defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.60

Universidad de Chile attack 1.27 + U. Catolica defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

U. Catolica scores more
49%
level
25%
Universidad de Chile scores more
26%

U. Catolica at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "U. Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: U. Catolica 1–0 Universidad de Chile

U. Catolica beat Universidad de Chile 1-0 in Primera División on October 26, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo in Santiago de Chile.