Universidad de Chile 1–0 Santiago Wanderers

Universidad de Chile

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Santiago Wanderers

J. Larrivey 19'

5/4/2021

Primera División · Round 6Estadio El Teniente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Universidad de Chile55%

×Draw25%

Santiago Wanderers20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universidad de ChileExpected goals in this matchSantiago Wanderers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.88

Universidad de Chile

1.65

Santiago Wanderers

0.88

Universidad de Chile creates 88% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 32 away

1.57

creates per match

0.78

0.98

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Universidad de Chile

1.57

Santiago Wanderers

0.78

allows per match

Universidad de Chile

0.98

Santiago Wanderers

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universidad de Chile+0.00on par

Santiago Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad de Chile ↓

Santiago Wanderers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Universidad de Chile or draw

80%

Universidad de Chile or Santiago Wanderers

75%

Draw or Santiago Wanderers

45%

Winning margin

Universidad de Chile wins by 2+

30%

Santiago Wanderers wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Universidad de Chile 1+ goals

81%

Universidad de Chile 2+ goals

49%

Universidad de Chile 3+ goals

23%

Santiago Wanderers 1+ goals

59%

Santiago Wanderers 2+ goals

22%

Santiago Wanderers 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Universidad de Chile (draw refunded)

74%

Santiago Wanderers (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad de Chile at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.98 · 115 matches

Santiago Wanderers away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.72 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad de Chile attack 1.57 + Santiago Wanderers defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.65

Santiago Wanderers attack 0.78 + Universidad de Chile defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Universidad de Chile scores more

55%

level

25%

Santiago Wanderers scores more

20%

Universidad de Chile at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Universidad de Chile will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

F. De Paul

Universidad de Chile · G

8.3

Match Events

4'

M. Sandoval← M. Cañete

17'

Matías Marín

19'

J. Larrivey↳ Á. Henríquez

32'

Néstor CanelónGoal cancelled

33'

43'

45+2'

51'

54'

64'

Mauricio Morales← C. Moya

64'

D. Carrasco← Marcelo Morales

64'

N. Luján← P. Aránguiz

70'

A. Jara← S. Ubilla

70'

B. Bustamante← L. García

80'

D. Vallejos← N. Canelón

80'

F. Alarcón← M. Marín

90+2'

T. Rodríguez← Á. Henríquez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UniversidadSantiago

Overview

49%Possession51%

7Total Shots17

4Corners7

17Fouls12

Shots

7Total Shots17

1On Target5

5Off Target9

1Blocked3

4Inside Box8

3Outside Box9

Passing

49%Possession51%

406Total Passes397

322Accurate Passes309

79%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

5Saves0

Discipline

17Fouls12

3Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2