Santiago Wanderers 2–1 Universidad de Chile

Santiago Wanderers

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Universidad de Chile

M. Marín 25'

R. Fernández 11' (pen)

J. Larrivey 51'

9/29/2021

Primera División · Round 23Estadio Elías Figueroa Brander

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Santiago Wanderers34%

×Draw26%

Universidad de Chile40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santiago WanderersExpected goals in this matchUniversidad de Chile

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.40

Santiago Wanderers

1.27

Universidad de Chile

1.40

Universidad de Chile creates 10% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 119 away

1.21

creates per match

1.28

1.52

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Santiago Wanderers

1.21

Universidad de Chile

1.28

allows per match

Santiago Wanderers

1.52

Universidad de Chile

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santiago Wanderers+0.00on par

Universidad de Chile+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santiago Wanderers ↓

Universidad de Chile →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Santiago Wanderers or draw

60%

Santiago Wanderers or Universidad de Chile

74%

Draw or Universidad de Chile

66%

Winning margin

Santiago Wanderers wins by 2+

15%

Universidad de Chile wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Santiago Wanderers 1+ goals

72%

Santiago Wanderers 2+ goals

36%

Santiago Wanderers 3+ goals

14%

Universidad de Chile 1+ goals

75%

Universidad de Chile 2+ goals

41%

Universidad de Chile 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Santiago Wanderers (draw refunded)

46%

Universidad de Chile (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santiago Wanderers at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.52 · 33 matches

Universidad de Chile away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.34 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santiago Wanderers attack 1.21 + Universidad de Chile defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.27

Universidad de Chile attack 1.28 + Santiago Wanderers defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Santiago Wanderers scores more

34%

level

26%

Universidad de Chile scores more

40%

Universidad de Chile at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Universidad de Chile will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

M. Marín

Santiago Wanderers · M

7.5

Match Events

9'

Ronnie FernándezPenalty cancelled

10'

Ramón Arias

11'

R. FernándezPenalty

25'

M. Marín

48'

Matías Marín

51'

J. Larrivey↳ Y. Andía

61'

64'

64'

64'

71'

72'

P. Aránguiz← J. Fernándes

72'

74'

79'

83'

86'

90+8'

90+8'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SantiagoUniversidad

Overview

39%Possession61%

9Total Shots9

3Corners9

23Fouls14

Shots

9Total Shots9

5On Target2

3Off Target2

1Blocked5

6Inside Box3

3Outside Box6

Passing

39%Possession61%

243Total Passes357

139Accurate Passes249

57%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

23Fouls14

1Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

2Offsides1