Universidad de Chile 2–2 Lanus: Result & Stats

Universidad de Chile

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Lanus

C. Aranguiz 90' (pen)

L. Di Yorio 63'

R. Castillo 29', 25'

10/23/2025

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Semi-FinalsNacional Julio Martínez Prádanos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Universidad de Chile49%

×Draw25%

Lanus26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universidad de ChileExpected goals in this matchLanus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.11

Universidad de Chile

1.62

Lanus

1.11

Universidad de Chile creates 46% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 23 away

2.20

creates per match

1.22

1.00

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Universidad de Chile

2.20

Lanus

1.22

allows per match

Universidad de Chile

1.00

Lanus

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universidad de Chile+0.00on par

Lanus+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad de Chile ↓

Lanus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Universidad de Chile or draw

74%

Universidad de Chile or Lanus

75%

Draw or Lanus

51%

Winning margin

Universidad de Chile wins by 2+

26%

Lanus wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Universidad de Chile 1+ goals

80%

Universidad de Chile 2+ goals

48%

Universidad de Chile 3+ goals

22%

Lanus 1+ goals

67%

Lanus 2+ goals

30%

Lanus 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Universidad de Chile (draw refunded)

65%

Lanus (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad de Chile at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Lanus away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad de Chile attack 2.20 + Lanus defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.62

Lanus attack 1.22 + Universidad de Chile defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Universidad de Chile scores more

49%

level

25%

Lanus scores more

26%

Universidad de Chile at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Universidad de Chile will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

R. Castillo

Lanus · F

8.7

Match Events

10'

Matías Zaldivia

25'

R. Castillo

29'

R. Castillo↳ E. Salvio

61'

L. Di Yorio← N. Guerra

62'

F. Salomoni← M. Sepulveda

63'

L. Di Yorio

66'

Gonzalo Perez

79'

L. Fernandez← M. G. Guerrero Pena

80'

Sasha Marcich

83'

A. Mendez← E. Salvio

85'

W. Bou← R. Castillo

86'

A. Canelo← Marcelino Moreno

89'

90+8'

90+7'

90+1'

90+4'

90+4'

J. Ramirez← A. Medina

90'

C. AranguizPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UniversidadLanus

Overview

73%Possession27%

22Total Shots7

9Corners3

8Fouls20

Shots

22Total Shots7

9On Target4

8Off Target2

5Blocked1

13Inside Box3

9Outside Box4

Passing

73%Possession27%

654Total Passes247

560Accurate Passes161

86%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

Discipline

8Fouls20

1Yellow Cards6