Lanus 1–0 Universidad de Chile: Result & Stats

Lanus

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Universidad de Chile

R. Castillo 62'

10/30/2025

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Semi-FinalsEstadio Ciudad de Lanus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Lanus56%

×Draw28%

Universidad de Chile17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LanusExpected goals in this matchUniversidad de Chile

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.63

Lanus

1.40

Universidad de Chile

0.63

Lanus creates 122% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 4 away

1.80

creates per match

0.50

0.76

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Lanus

1.80

Universidad de Chile

0.50

allows per match

Lanus

0.76

Universidad de Chile

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lanus+0.00on par

Universidad de Chile+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lanus ↓

Universidad de Chile →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Lanus or draw

83%

Lanus or Universidad de Chile

72%

Draw or Universidad de Chile

44%

Winning margin

Lanus wins by 2+

28%

Universidad de Chile wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Lanus 1+ goals

75%

Lanus 2+ goals

41%

Lanus 3+ goals

17%

Universidad de Chile 1+ goals

47%

Universidad de Chile 2+ goals

13%

Universidad de Chile 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Lanus (draw refunded)

77%

Universidad de Chile (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lanus at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.76 · 25 matches

Universidad de Chile away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lanus attack 1.80 + Universidad de Chile defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.40

Universidad de Chile attack 0.50 + Lanus defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Lanus scores more

56%

level

28%

Universidad de Chile scores more

17%

Lanus at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Lanus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

R. Castillo

Universidad de Chile

7.6

Match Events

-5'

Lautaro Acosta

6'

Agustín Cardozo

14'

Marcelino MorenoGoal cancelled

55'

Felipe SalomoniGoal cancelled

62'

R. Castillo↳ Marcelino Moreno

65'

Fabián Hormazábal

70'

M. Sepulveda← F. Salomoni

76'

L. Fernandez← M. G. Guerrero Pena

83'

A. Mendez← E. Salvio

83'

F. N. Watson← R. Carrera

86'

W. Bou← R. Castillo

86'

A. Canelo← Marcelino Moreno

90+6'

Leandro Fernández

90+2'

R. Contreras← F. Calderon

90+4'

E. Munoz← A. Medina

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LanusUniversidad

Overview

44%Possession56%

11Total Shots6

1.01Expected Goals (xG)0.17

6Corners2

12Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots6

3On Target2

5Off Target3

3Blocked1

7Inside Box3

4Outside Box3

Passing

44%Possession56%

329Total Passes427

217Accurate Passes305

66%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Lanus 1–0 Universidad de Chile

Lanus beat Universidad de Chile 1-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on October 30, 2025.

Goals: R. Castillo (62').

Universidad de Chile controlled possession (56%) and registered 6 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Lanus in Buenos Aires.

Lanus vs Universidad de Chile — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Lanus 1–0 Universidad de Chile