Universidad de Chile 1–0 Everton de Vina

Universidad de Chile

Pens

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Everton de Vina

7/14/2024

Copa Chile · Regional Semi-finalsEstadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Universidad de Chile47%

×Draw27%

Everton de Vina26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universidad de ChileExpected goals in this matchEverton de Vina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.99

Universidad de Chile

1.42

Everton de Vina

0.99

Universidad de Chile creates 43% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 18 away

1.73

creates per match

1.33

0.64

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Universidad de Chile

1.73

Everton de Vina

1.33

allows per match

Universidad de Chile

0.64

Everton de Vina

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universidad de Chile+0.00on par

Everton de Vina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad de Chile ↓

Everton de Vina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Universidad de Chile or draw

74%

Universidad de Chile or Everton de Vina

73%

Draw or Everton de Vina

53%

Winning margin

Universidad de Chile wins by 2+

23%

Everton de Vina wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Universidad de Chile 1+ goals

76%

Universidad de Chile 2+ goals

41%

Universidad de Chile 3+ goals

17%

Everton de Vina 1+ goals

63%

Everton de Vina 2+ goals

26%

Everton de Vina 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Universidad de Chile (draw refunded)

64%

Everton de Vina (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad de Chile at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.64 · 22 matches

Everton de Vina away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad de Chile attack 1.73 + Everton de Vina defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.42

Everton de Vina attack 1.33 + Universidad de Chile defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Universidad de Chile scores more

47%

level

27%

Everton de Vina scores more

26%

Universidad de Chile at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Universidad de Chile will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff