Everton de Vina 2–0 Universidad de Chile

Everton de Vina

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Universidad de Chile

3/27/2025

Primera División · Round 6Estadio Sausalito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Everton de Vina39%

×Draw27%

Universidad de Chile33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Everton de VinaExpected goals in this matchUniversidad de Chile

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.15

Everton de Vina

1.27

Universidad de Chile

1.15

Everton de Vina creates 10% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 128 away

1.16

creates per match

1.27

1.03

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Everton de Vina

1.16

Universidad de Chile

1.27

allows per match

Everton de Vina

1.03

Universidad de Chile

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Everton de Vina+0.00on par

Universidad de Chile+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Everton de Vina ↓

Universidad de Chile →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Everton de Vina or draw

67%

Everton de Vina or Universidad de Chile

73%

Draw or Universidad de Chile

61%

Winning margin

Everton de Vina wins by 2+

17%

Universidad de Chile wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Everton de Vina 1+ goals

72%

Everton de Vina 2+ goals

36%

Everton de Vina 3+ goals

14%

Universidad de Chile 1+ goals

68%

Universidad de Chile 2+ goals

32%

Universidad de Chile 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Everton de Vina (draw refunded)

54%

Universidad de Chile (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Everton de Vina at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.03 · 128 matches

Universidad de Chile away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.37 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Everton de Vina attack 1.16 + Universidad de Chile defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.27

Universidad de Chile attack 1.27 + Everton de Vina defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Everton de Vina scores more

39%

level

27%

Universidad de Chile scores more

33%

Everton de Vina at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Everton de Vina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Everton de Vina 2–0 Universidad de Chile

Everton de Vina beat Universidad de Chile 2-0 in Primera División on March 27, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Sausalito in Vina del Mar.

Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Chile — Primera División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Primera División: Everton de Vina 2–0 Universidad de Chile