Universidad de Chile vs Deportes Copiapo — Primera División 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 30+ matches
Universidad de Chile57%
Deportes Copiapo19%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Universidad de Chile creates 92% more chances
Season form · 127 home / 30 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under50
- Over50
Close call
Both teams score
- No51
- Yes49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Universidad de Chile ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Universidad de Chile at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.01 · 127 matches
Deportes Copiapo away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.93 · 30 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Universidad de Chile attack 1.57 + Deportes Copiapo defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.75
Deportes Copiapo attack 0.80 + Universidad de Chile defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.91
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 57%?"
Universidad de Chile at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 57% does not mean "Universidad de Chile will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
U. Catolica
Colo Colo
Huachipato
Union Espanola
San Luis
Antofagasta
O'Higgins
Deportes Iquique
Everton de VinaUniversidad de Chile
Union La Calera
Palestino
Deportes Temuco
Universidad de Concepcion
A. Italiano
Curico UnidoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Universidad de Chile host Deportes Copiapo on Sunday, 4 August 2024 at 21:30. The match is part of the Primera División 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Universidad de Chile vs Deportes Copiapo
Universidad de Chile beat Deportes Copiapo 1-0 in Primera División on August 4, 2024.
The match was played at Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos in Santiago de Chile.