Deportes Copiapo 3–1 Universidad de Chile

Deportes Copiapo

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Universidad de Chile

9/24/2023

Primera División · Round 24Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Deportes Copiapo39%

×Draw25%

Universidad de Chile37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportes CopiapoExpected goals in this matchUniversidad de Chile

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.44

Deportes Copiapo

1.49

Universidad de Chile

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 128 away

1.60

creates per match

1.27

1.60

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Deportes Copiapo

1.60

Universidad de Chile

1.27

allows per match

Deportes Copiapo

1.60

Universidad de Chile

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportes Copiapo+0.00on par

Universidad de Chile+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Copiapo ↓

Universidad de Chile →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Deportes Copiapo or draw

63%

Deportes Copiapo or Universidad de Chile

75%

Draw or Universidad de Chile

61%

Winning margin

Deportes Copiapo wins by 2+

19%

Universidad de Chile wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Deportes Copiapo 1+ goals

77%

Deportes Copiapo 2+ goals

44%

Deportes Copiapo 3+ goals

19%

Universidad de Chile 1+ goals

76%

Universidad de Chile 2+ goals

42%

Universidad de Chile 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Deportes Copiapo (draw refunded)

51%

Universidad de Chile (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Copiapo at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.60 · 30 matches

Universidad de Chile away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.37 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Copiapo attack 1.60 + Universidad de Chile defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.49

Universidad de Chile attack 1.27 + Deportes Copiapo defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Deportes Copiapo scores more

39%

level

25%

Universidad de Chile scores more

37%

Deportes Copiapo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Deportes Copiapo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff