Universidad de Chile 1–1 Coquimbo Unido

Universidad de Chile

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Coquimbo Unido

12/2/2025

Primera División · Round 29Estadio Nacional Julio Martinez Pradanos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Universidad de Chile47%

×Draw26%

Coquimbo Unido27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universidad de ChileExpected goals in this matchCoquimbo Unido

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.07

Universidad de Chile

1.48

Coquimbo Unido

1.07

Universidad de Chile creates 38% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 97 away

1.57

creates per match

1.13

1.01

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Universidad de Chile

1.57

Coquimbo Unido

1.13

allows per match

Universidad de Chile

1.01

Coquimbo Unido

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universidad de Chile+0.00on par

Coquimbo Unido+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad de Chile ↓

Coquimbo Unido →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Universidad de Chile or draw

73%

Universidad de Chile or Coquimbo Unido

74%

Draw or Coquimbo Unido

53%

Winning margin

Universidad de Chile wins by 2+

23%

Coquimbo Unido wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Universidad de Chile 1+ goals

77%

Universidad de Chile 2+ goals

43%

Universidad de Chile 3+ goals

19%

Coquimbo Unido 1+ goals

66%

Coquimbo Unido 2+ goals

29%

Coquimbo Unido 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Universidad de Chile (draw refunded)

63%

Coquimbo Unido (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad de Chile at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.01 · 127 matches

Coquimbo Unido away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad de Chile attack 1.57 + Coquimbo Unido defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.48

Coquimbo Unido attack 1.13 + Universidad de Chile defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Universidad de Chile scores more

47%

level

26%

Coquimbo Unido scores more

27%

Universidad de Chile at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Universidad de Chile will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff