Coquimbo Unido 1–0 Universidad de Chile

Coquimbo Unido

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Universidad de Chile

6/15/2025

Primera División · Round 14Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Coquimbo Unido42%

×Draw26%

Universidad de Chile31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Coquimbo UnidoExpected goals in this matchUniversidad de Chile

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.16

Coquimbo Unido

1.40

Universidad de Chile

1.16

Coquimbo Unido creates 21% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 128 away

1.43

creates per match

1.27

1.04

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Coquimbo Unido

1.43

Universidad de Chile

1.27

allows per match

Coquimbo Unido

1.04

Universidad de Chile

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coquimbo Unido+0.00on par

Universidad de Chile+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coquimbo Unido ↓

Universidad de Chile →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Coquimbo Unido or draw

69%

Coquimbo Unido or Universidad de Chile

74%

Draw or Universidad de Chile

58%

Winning margin

Coquimbo Unido wins by 2+

20%

Universidad de Chile wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Coquimbo Unido 1+ goals

75%

Coquimbo Unido 2+ goals

41%

Coquimbo Unido 3+ goals

17%

Universidad de Chile 1+ goals

69%

Universidad de Chile 2+ goals

32%

Universidad de Chile 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Coquimbo Unido (draw refunded)

58%

Universidad de Chile (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coquimbo Unido at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.04 · 96 matches

Universidad de Chile away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.37 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coquimbo Unido attack 1.43 + Universidad de Chile defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.40

Universidad de Chile attack 1.27 + Coquimbo Unido defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Coquimbo Unido scores more

42%

level

26%

Universidad de Chile scores more

31%

Coquimbo Unido at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Coquimbo Unido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff