Universidad Catolica 0–0 The Strongest

Universidad Catolica

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

The Strongest

3/11/2022

CONMEBOL Libertadores · 3rd RoundEstadio Olímpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Universidad Catolica76%

×Draw20%

The Strongest4%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universidad CatolicaExpected goals in this matchThe Strongest

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.19

Universidad Catolica

1.71

The Strongest

0.19

Universidad Catolica creates 800% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 17 away

1.00

creates per match

0.18

0.20

allows per match

2.41

creates per match

Universidad Catolica

1.00

The Strongest

0.18

allows per match

Universidad Catolica

0.20

The Strongest

2.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universidad Catolica+0.00on par

The Strongest+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No86
Yes14

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad Catolica ↓

The Strongest →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–13%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–026%

1–15%

1–20%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–022%

2–14%

2–20%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–12%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (26%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Universidad Catolica or draw

96%

Universidad Catolica or The Strongest

80%

Draw or The Strongest

24%

Winning margin

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+

46%

The Strongest wins by 2+

0%

Team goals

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals

82%

Universidad Catolica 2+ goals

51%

Universidad Catolica 3+ goals

24%

The Strongest 1+ goals

17%

The Strongest 2+ goals

2%

The Strongest 3+ goals

0%

Draw no bet

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)

95%

The Strongest (draw refunded)

5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

9%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad Catolica at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

The Strongest away — creates 0.18, concedes 2.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad Catolica attack 1.00 + The Strongest defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.71

The Strongest attack 0.18 + Universidad Catolica defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Universidad Catolica scores more

76%

level

20%

The Strongest scores more

4%

Universidad Catolica at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Universidad Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

F. Martínez

Universidad Catolica · M

8.3

Match Events

36'

Martín Prost

42'

J. Cárdenas← D. Cuero

45+2'

L. Loor← J. Carabalí

62'

J. Arrascaita← R. Amaral

68'

J. Reinoso← E. Triverio

69'

Jair Reinoso

74'

R. Rivas← C. Martínez

74'

W. Cevallos← S. Zamora

76'

Rodrigo Rivas González

86'

Guillermo Viscarra

90+6'

Kevin Minda

90+1'

J. Villamíl← L. Ursino

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UniversidadThe

Overview

71%Possession29%

24Total Shots4

3Corners2

8Fouls9

Shots

24Total Shots4

5On Target0

17Off Target3

2Blocked1

8Inside Box1

16Outside Box3

Passing

71%Possession29%

603Total Passes245

534Accurate Passes166

89%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

8Fouls9

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

0Offsides2

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Universidad Catolica 0–0 The Strongest

Universidad Catolica and The Strongest drew 0-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on March 11, 2022.

Universidad Catolica controlled possession (71%) and registered 24 shots to 4.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa in Quito.

Universidad Catolica vs The Strongest — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Universidad Catolica 0–0 The Strongest