The Strongest 2–1 Universidad Catolica

The Strongest

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Universidad Catolica

R. Amaral 84'

E. Triverio 2'

I. Díaz 7'

3/18/2022

CONMEBOL Libertadores · 3rd RoundEstadio Hernando Siles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

The Strongest56%

×Draw24%

Universidad Catolica20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

The StrongestExpected goals in this matchUniversidad Catolica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.88

The Strongest

1.67

Universidad Catolica

0.88

The Strongest creates 90% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 6 away

1.84

creates per match

1.17

0.58

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

The Strongest

1.84

Universidad Catolica

1.17

allows per match

The Strongest

0.58

Universidad Catolica

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

The Strongest+0.00on par

Universidad Catolica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

The Strongest ↓

Universidad Catolica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

The Strongest or draw

80%

The Strongest or Universidad Catolica

76%

Draw or Universidad Catolica

44%

Winning margin

The Strongest wins by 2+

31%

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

The Strongest 1+ goals

81%

The Strongest 2+ goals

50%

The Strongest 3+ goals

23%

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals

59%

Universidad Catolica 2+ goals

22%

Universidad Catolica 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

The Strongest (draw refunded)

74%

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

The Strongest at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.58 · 19 matches

Universidad Catolica away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

The Strongest attack 1.84 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.67

Universidad Catolica attack 1.17 + The Strongest defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

The Strongest scores more

56%

level

24%

Universidad Catolica scores more

20%

The Strongest at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "The Strongest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

F. Martínez

Universidad Catolica · M

7.5

Match Events

2'

E. Triverio

7'

I. Díaz

49'

Juan Aponte

62'

W. Cevallos← K. Minda

66'

Facundo Martinez

67'

J. Reinoso← J. Arrascaita

74'

L. Alzugaray← W. Chalá

75'

D. Clavijo← S. Zamora

76'

78'

84'

85'

87'

L. Demiquel← R. Amaral

87'

R. Rivas← L. Loor

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TheUniversidad

Overview

52%Possession48%

12Total Shots13

3Corners5

15Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots13

6On Target3

5Off Target7

1Blocked3

6Inside Box7

6Outside Box6

Passing

52%Possession48%

417Total Passes397

348Accurate Passes312

83%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0

Match Recap: The Strongest vs Universidad Catolica

The Strongest beat Universidad Catolica 2-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on March 18, 2022.

Goals: E. Triverio (2'), I. Díaz (7'), R. Amaral (84').

The Strongest controlled possession (52%) and registered 12 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Hernando Siles in La Paz.

The Strongest vs Universidad Catolica — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: The Strongest vs Universidad Catolica