Universidad Catolica 2–0 Tecnico Universitario

Universidad Catolica

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tecnico Universitario

8/24/2025

Liga Pro · Round 26Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Universidad Catolica54%

×Draw24%

Tecnico Universitario22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universidad CatolicaExpected goals in this matchTecnico Universitario

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

0.95

Universidad Catolica

1.66

Tecnico Universitario

0.95

Universidad Catolica creates 75% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 129 away

1.92

creates per match

0.86

1.03

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Universidad Catolica

1.92

Tecnico Universitario

0.86

allows per match

Universidad Catolica

1.03

Tecnico Universitario

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universidad Catolica+0.00on par

Tecnico Universitario+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad Catolica ↓

Tecnico Universitario →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Universidad Catolica or draw

78%

Universidad Catolica or Tecnico Universitario

76%

Draw or Tecnico Universitario

46%

Winning margin

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+

29%

Tecnico Universitario wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals

81%

Universidad Catolica 2+ goals

49%

Universidad Catolica 3+ goals

23%

Tecnico Universitario 1+ goals

61%

Tecnico Universitario 2+ goals

25%

Tecnico Universitario 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)

71%

Tecnico Universitario (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad Catolica at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.03 · 132 matches

Tecnico Universitario away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.40 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad Catolica attack 1.92 + Tecnico Universitario defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.66

Tecnico Universitario attack 0.86 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Universidad Catolica scores more

54%

level

24%

Tecnico Universitario scores more

22%

Universidad Catolica at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Universidad Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff