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Tecnico Universitario vs Universidad Catolica — Liga Pro 2026

Tecnico Universitario
Tecnico Universitario
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Universidad Catolica
Universidad Catolica
11/4/2024Liga ProLiga Pro · 2nd Round - 12Estadio Bellavista de Ambato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Tecnico Universitario35%
×Draw27%
Universidad Catolica39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tecnico Universitario
1.24
Universidad Catolica
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 128 home / 131 away

creates per match

Tecnico Universitario
1.23
Universidad Catolica
1.41

allows per match

Tecnico Universitario
1.23
Universidad Catolica
1.25

finishing

Tecnico Universitario+0.00on par
Universidad Catolica+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tecnico Universitario ↓

Universidad Catolica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tecnico Universitario or draw
61%
Tecnico Universitario or Universidad Catolica
73%
Draw or Universidad Catolica
65%

Winning margin

Tecnico Universitario wins by 2+
15%
Universidad Catolica wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Tecnico Universitario 1+ goals
71%
Tecnico Universitario 2+ goals
35%
Tecnico Universitario 3+ goals
13%
Universidad Catolica 1+ goals
73%
Universidad Catolica 2+ goals
38%
Universidad Catolica 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Tecnico Universitario (draw refunded)
47%
Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tecnico Universitario at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.23 · 128 matches

Universidad Catolica away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.25 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tecnico Universitario attack 1.23 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.24

Universidad Catolica attack 1.41 + Tecnico Universitario defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tecnico Universitario scores more
35%
level
27%
Universidad Catolica scores more
39%

Universidad Catolica at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Universidad Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tecnico Universitario vs Universidad Catolica

Tecnico Universitario beat Universidad Catolica 2-0 in Liga Pro on November 4, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Bellavista de Ambato in Ambato.