Universidad Catolica 0–0 Millonarios

Universidad Catolica

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Millonarios

2/24/2023

CONMEBOL Libertadores · 2nd RoundEstadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Universidad Catolica68%

×Draw23%

Millonarios9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universidad CatolicaExpected goals in this matchMillonarios

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.44

Universidad Catolica

1.67

Millonarios

0.44

Universidad Catolica creates 280% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

1.00

creates per match

0.67

0.20

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Universidad Catolica

1.00

Millonarios

0.67

allows per match

Universidad Catolica

0.20

Millonarios

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universidad Catolica+0.00on par

Millonarios+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No71
Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad Catolica ↓

Millonarios →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–017%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Universidad Catolica or draw

91%

Universidad Catolica or Millonarios

77%

Draw or Millonarios

32%

Winning margin

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+

39%

Millonarios wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals

81%

Universidad Catolica 2+ goals

50%

Universidad Catolica 3+ goals

23%

Millonarios 1+ goals

36%

Millonarios 2+ goals

7%

Millonarios 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)

88%

Millonarios (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad Catolica at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

Millonarios away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad Catolica attack 1.00 + Millonarios defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Millonarios attack 0.67 + Universidad Catolica defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Universidad Catolica scores more

68%

level

23%

Millonarios scores more

9%

Universidad Catolica at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Universidad Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

L. Loor

Universidad Catolica · D

8.2

Match Events

33'

Gregori Anangonó

36'

Ismael Díaz

36'

Daniel Giraldo

46'

R. Romo← D. Cuero

64'

M. Díaz← W. Cevallos

73'

J. Carabalí← A. Rodríguez

73'

J. Quiñones← D. Cataño

73'

J. Valencia← L. Castro

79'

C. Martínez← C. Colmán

80'

D. Clavijo← S. Zamora

82'

E. Guerra← Ó. Cortés

87'

O. Vanegas← D. Silva

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UniversidadMillonarios

Overview

53%Possession47%

11Total Shots7

7Corners2

9Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots7

1On Target0

6Off Target6

4Blocked1

8Inside Box3

3Outside Box4

Passing

53%Possession47%

488Total Passes448

414Accurate Passes375

85%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls12

2Yellow Cards1

0Offsides4

Match Recap: Universidad Catolica vs Millonarios

Universidad Catolica and Millonarios drew 0-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on February 24, 2023.

Universidad Catolica controlled possession (53%) and registered 11 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado in Quito.

Universidad Catolica vs Millonarios — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Universidad Catolica vs Millonarios