Millonarios 2–1 Universidad Catolica

Millonarios

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Universidad Catolica

D. Cataño 69'

L. Castro 62'

I. Díaz 38' (pen)

3/3/2023

CONMEBOL Libertadores · 2nd RoundEstadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Millonarios40%

×Draw27%

Universidad Catolica33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MillonariosExpected goals in this matchUniversidad Catolica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.17

Millonarios

1.33

Universidad Catolica

1.17

Millonarios creates 14% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

1.17

creates per match

1.17

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Millonarios

1.17

Universidad Catolica

1.17

allows per match

Millonarios

1.17

Universidad Catolica

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Millonarios+0.00on par

Universidad Catolica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millonarios ↓

Universidad Catolica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Millonarios or draw

67%

Millonarios or Universidad Catolica

73%

Draw or Universidad Catolica

60%

Winning margin

Millonarios wins by 2+

18%

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Millonarios 1+ goals

74%

Millonarios 2+ goals

38%

Millonarios 3+ goals

15%

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals

69%

Universidad Catolica 2+ goals

33%

Universidad Catolica 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Millonarios (draw refunded)

55%

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millonarios at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Universidad Catolica away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millonarios attack 1.17 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.33

Universidad Catolica attack 1.17 + Millonarios defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Millonarios scores more

40%

level

27%

Universidad Catolica scores more

33%

Millonarios at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Millonarios will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

D. Cataño

Millonarios · M

8.6

Match Events

38'

I. DíazPenalty

41'

41'

42'

44'

44'

46'

46'

Y. Mosquera← S. Zamora

62'

L. Castro↳ Ó. Cortés

66'

J. Carabalí← C. Colmán

69'

D. Cataño

72'

Andrés Llinás

78'

Facundo Martinez

79'

J. Valencia← D. Silva

79'

C. Martínez← A. Rodríguez

87'

J. Pereira← L. Castro

87'

O. Vanegas← D. Cataño

90+6'

Óscar Vanegas

90+4'

Larry Vásquez

90+2'

I. Alba← E. Perlaza

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MillonariosUniversidad

Overview

62%Possession38%

20Total Shots10

2Corners3

16Fouls15

Shots

20Total Shots10

4On Target5

11Off Target4

5Blocked1

14Inside Box7

6Outside Box3

Passing

62%Possession38%

524Total Passes330

441Accurate Passes237

84%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls15

3Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

5Offsides3

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Millonarios 2–1 Universidad Catolica

Millonarios beat Universidad Catolica 2-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on March 3, 2023.

Goals: I. Díaz (38' pen), L. Castro (62'), D. Cataño (69').

Millonarios controlled possession (62%) and registered 20 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín in Bogotá, D.C..

Millonarios vs Universidad Catolica — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Millonarios 2–1 Universidad Catolica