Universidad Catolica 3–0 Liverpool Montevideo

Universidad Catolica

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Liverpool Montevideo

G. De Los Santos 74'

W. Chalá 44'

J. Tévez 37'

3/3/2021

CONMEBOL Libertadores · 1st RoundEstadio Olímpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Universidad Catolica68%

×Draw23%

Liverpool Montevideo9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universidad CatolicaExpected goals in this matchLiverpool Montevideo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.42

Universidad Catolica

1.63

Liverpool Montevideo

0.42

Universidad Catolica creates 288% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

1.00

creates per match

0.63

0.20

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Universidad Catolica

1.00

Liverpool Montevideo

0.63

allows per match

Universidad Catolica

0.20

Liverpool Montevideo

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universidad Catolica+0.00on par

Liverpool Montevideo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No72
Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad Catolica ↓

Liverpool Montevideo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–017%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Universidad Catolica or draw

91%

Universidad Catolica or Liverpool Montevideo

77%

Draw or Liverpool Montevideo

32%

Winning margin

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+

38%

Liverpool Montevideo wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals

80%

Universidad Catolica 2+ goals

48%

Universidad Catolica 3+ goals

22%

Liverpool Montevideo 1+ goals

34%

Liverpool Montevideo 2+ goals

7%

Liverpool Montevideo 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)

88%

Liverpool Montevideo (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad Catolica at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

Liverpool Montevideo away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad Catolica attack 1.00 + Liverpool Montevideo defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Liverpool Montevideo attack 0.63 + Universidad Catolica defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Universidad Catolica scores more

68%

level

23%

Liverpool Montevideo scores more

9%

Universidad Catolica at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Universidad Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

H. Galíndez

Universidad Catolica · G

8.3

Match Events

8'

L. Alzugaray

31'

G. De Los Santos

37'

J. Tévez

44'

W. Chalá↳ L. Alzugaray

46'

Gastón Pérez← F. Romero

59'

67'

68'

71'

72'

73'

J. Valencia← L. Alzugaray

74'

G. De Los Santos↳ F. Martínez

77'

M. Fernández← F. Díaz

78'

B. Correa← H. Figueredo

87'

W. Cevallos← J. Tévez

90+3'

M. Fernandez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UniversidadLiverpool

Overview

52%Possession48%

15Total Shots17

6Corners6

14Fouls8

Shots

15Total Shots17

5On Target5

7Off Target10

3Blocked2

11Inside Box6

4Outside Box11

Passing

52%Possession48%

402Total Passes367

335Accurate Passes287

83%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls8

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Universidad Catolica vs Liverpool Montevideo

Universidad Catolica beat Liverpool Montevideo 3-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on March 3, 2021.

Goals: J. Tévez (37'), W. Chalá (44'), G. De Los Santos (74').

Universidad Catolica controlled possession (52%) and registered 15 shots to 17.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa in Quito.

Universidad Catolica vs Liverpool Montevideo — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Universidad Catolica vs Liverpool Montevideo