Liverpool Montevideo 2–1 Universidad Catolica

Liverpool Montevideo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Universidad Catolica

B. Correa 90+1'

A. Dávila 68'

J. Tévez 27'

2/24/2021

CONMEBOL Libertadores · 1st RoundParque Alfredo Víctor Viera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Liverpool Montevideo32%

×Draw26%

Universidad Catolica42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Liverpool MontevideoExpected goals in this matchUniversidad Catolica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.46

Liverpool Montevideo

1.25

Universidad Catolica

1.46

Universidad Catolica creates 17% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

1.00

creates per match

1.17

1.75

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Liverpool Montevideo

1.00

Universidad Catolica

1.17

allows per match

Liverpool Montevideo

1.75

Universidad Catolica

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Liverpool Montevideo+0.00on par

Universidad Catolica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liverpool Montevideo ↓

Universidad Catolica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Liverpool Montevideo or draw

58%

Liverpool Montevideo or Universidad Catolica

74%

Draw or Universidad Catolica

68%

Winning margin

Liverpool Montevideo wins by 2+

14%

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Liverpool Montevideo 1+ goals

71%

Liverpool Montevideo 2+ goals

36%

Liverpool Montevideo 3+ goals

13%

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals

77%

Universidad Catolica 2+ goals

43%

Universidad Catolica 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Liverpool Montevideo (draw refunded)

44%

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liverpool Montevideo at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Universidad Catolica away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liverpool Montevideo attack 1.00 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Universidad Catolica attack 1.17 + Liverpool Montevideo defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Liverpool Montevideo scores more

32%

level

26%

Universidad Catolica scores more

42%

Universidad Catolica at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Universidad Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

C. Cándido

Liverpool Montevideo · D

8.9

Match Events

14'

21'

27'

55'

60'

68'

70'

70'

A. Medina← Gastón Pérez

75'

L. Alzugaray

76'

M. Fernández← H. Figueredo

77'

C. Almeida

81'

D. Armas← F. Martínez

82'

E. Farías← J. Tévez

84'

B. Correa← A. Dávila

85'

D. Jama← L. Alzugaray

90+1'

B. Correa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LiverpoolUniversidad

Overview

54%Possession46%

18Total Shots12

3Corners5

8Fouls16

Shots

18Total Shots12

6On Target5

10Off Target5

2Blocked2

6Inside Box6

12Outside Box6

Passing

54%Possession46%

495Total Passes409

392Accurate Passes304

79%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls16

1Yellow Cards4

2Offsides0