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Universidad Catolica vs Leones del Norte — Liga Pro 2026

Universidad Catolica
Universidad Catolica
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Leones del Norte
Leones del Norte
3/8/2026Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 3Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Universidad Catolica54%
×Draw25%
Leones del Norte22%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universidad Catolica
1.61
Leones del Norte
0.92

Universidad Catolica creates 75% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 10 away

creates per match

Universidad Catolica
1.92
Leones del Norte
0.80

allows per match

Universidad Catolica
1.03
Leones del Norte
1.30

finishing

Universidad Catolica+0.00on par
Leones del Norte+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad Catolica ↓

Leones del Norte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Universidad Catolica or draw
78%
Universidad Catolica or Leones del Norte
75%
Draw or Leones del Norte
46%

Winning margin

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+
28%
Leones del Norte wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals
80%
Universidad Catolica 2+ goals
48%
Universidad Catolica 3+ goals
22%
Leones del Norte 1+ goals
60%
Leones del Norte 2+ goals
23%
Leones del Norte 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)
71%
Leones del Norte (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad Catolica at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.03 · 132 matches

Leones del Norte away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad Catolica attack 1.92 + Leones del Norte defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.61

Leones del Norte attack 0.80 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Universidad Catolica scores more
54%
level
25%
Leones del Norte scores more
22%

Universidad Catolica at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Universidad Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Universidad Catolica vs Leones del Norte

Universidad Catolica beat Leones del Norte 3-0 in Liga Pro on March 8, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda in Quito.