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Leones del Norte vs Universidad Catolica — Liga Pro 2026

Leones del Norte
Leones del Norte
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Universidad Catolica
Universidad Catolica
E. Griffa 27'
7/10/2026Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 18Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Leones del Norte41%
×Draw28%
Universidad Catolica31%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leones del Norte
1.27
Universidad Catolica
1.06

Leones del Norte creates 20% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 132 away

creates per match

Leones del Norte
1.30
Universidad Catolica
1.42

allows per match

Leones del Norte
0.70
Universidad Catolica
1.24

finishing

Leones del Norte+0.00on par
Universidad Catolica+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leones del Norte ↓

Universidad Catolica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Leones del Norte or draw
69%
Leones del Norte or Universidad Catolica
72%
Draw or Universidad Catolica
59%

Winning margin

Leones del Norte wins by 2+
18%
Universidad Catolica wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Leones del Norte 1+ goals
72%
Leones del Norte 2+ goals
36%
Leones del Norte 3+ goals
14%
Universidad Catolica 1+ goals
65%
Universidad Catolica 2+ goals
29%
Universidad Catolica 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Leones del Norte (draw refunded)
57%
Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leones del Norte at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

Universidad Catolica away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.24 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leones del Norte attack 1.30 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Universidad Catolica attack 1.42 + Leones del Norte defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Leones del Norte scores more
41%
level
28%
Universidad Catolica scores more
31%

Leones del Norte at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Leones del Norte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
J. AnangonoGoal Disallowed - offside
16'
A. Aguas
19'
E. Valencia
27'
E. Griffa
45+6'
Jhon Chancellor
45+6'
R. Arroyo
54'
C. Solano
57'
G. Anangono
58'
E. Mejia← E. Valencia
58'
J. Fajardo← B. Palacios
60'
M. Alonso
62'
M. Caicedo← C. Solano
71'
J. Cacciabue
71'
L. Moreno← J. Cacciabue
80'
A. Rodriguez← J. Chala
80'
C. Velez← D. Pazmino
84'
M. Caicedo
86'
Caicedo Nestor← E. Griffa
87'
R. Borja← M. Caramuto
87'
T. Coppo← T. Coppo
90+3'
R. Borja
90+7'
A. Rodriguez

Possession

59%Leones

Shots

6Leones

Statistics

LeonesUniversidad
Overview
59%Possession41%
6Total Shots3
1Corners0
6Fouls4
Shots
6Total Shots3
2On Target1
4Off Target2
1Inside Box2
5Outside Box1
Passing
59%Possession41%
137Total Passes135
93Accurate Passes94
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
6Fouls4
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Leones del Norte vs Universidad Catolica

Leones del Norte beat Universidad Catolica 1-0 in Liga Pro on July 10, 2026.

Goals: E. Griffa (27').

Leones del Norte controlled possession (59%) and registered 6 shots to 3.

The match was played at Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra in Ibarra.