Universidad Catolica 2–0 Lanus: Result & Stats

Universidad Catolica

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Lanus

J. Tévez 50' (pen)

W. Chalá 39'

2/27/2020

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 1st RoundEstadio Olímpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Universidad Catolica48%

×Draw27%

Lanus25%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universidad CatolicaExpected goals in this matchLanus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.91

Universidad Catolica

1.39

Lanus

0.91

Universidad Catolica creates 53% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 23 away

1.73

creates per match

1.22

0.60

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Universidad Catolica

1.73

Lanus

1.22

allows per match

Universidad Catolica

0.60

Lanus

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universidad Catolica+0.00on par

Lanus+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad Catolica ↓

Lanus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Universidad Catolica or draw

75%

Universidad Catolica or Lanus

73%

Draw or Lanus

52%

Winning margin

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+

23%

Lanus wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals

75%

Universidad Catolica 2+ goals

40%

Universidad Catolica 3+ goals

16%

Lanus 1+ goals

60%

Lanus 2+ goals

23%

Lanus 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)

66%

Lanus (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad Catolica at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

Lanus away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad Catolica attack 1.73 + Lanus defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.39

Lanus attack 1.22 + Universidad Catolica defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Universidad Catolica scores more

48%

level

27%

Lanus scores more

25%

Universidad Catolica at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Universidad Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

A. López

Universidad Catolica · D

7.7

Match Events

18'

35'

39'

45'

50'

50'

J. TévezPenalty

51'

57'

65'

67'

73'

73'

P. De la Vega← N. Orsini

80'

J. Carabalí← F. Martínez

80'

A. Bernabei← Lautaro Acosta

90'

Guillermo Burdisso

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UniversidadLanus

Overview

66%Possession34%

17Total Shots6

4Corners2

9Fouls11

Shots

17Total Shots6

5On Target1

6Off Target5

6Blocked0

11Inside Box2

6Outside Box4

Passing

66%Possession34%

493Total Passes256

399Accurate Passes169

81%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls11

2Yellow Cards5

3Offsides2

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Universidad Catolica 2–0 Lanus

Universidad Catolica beat Lanus 2-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on February 27, 2020.

Goals: W. Chalá (39'), J. Tévez (50' pen).

Universidad Catolica controlled possession (66%) and registered 17 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa in Quito.

Universidad Catolica vs Lanus — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Universidad Catolica 2–0 Lanus