Lanus 3–0 Universidad Catolica: Result & Stats

Lanus

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Universidad Catolica

N. Orsini 80', 75'

Lautaro Acosta 53'

2/12/2020

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 1st RoundEstadio Ciudad de Lanús - Néstor Díaz Pérez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Lanus51%

×Draw25%

Universidad Catolica23%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LanusExpected goals in this matchUniversidad Catolica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.96

Lanus

1.56

Universidad Catolica

0.96

Lanus creates 63% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 15 away

1.79

creates per match

1.13

0.79

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Lanus

1.79

Universidad Catolica

1.13

allows per match

Lanus

0.79

Universidad Catolica

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lanus+0.00on par

Universidad Catolica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lanus ↓

Universidad Catolica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Lanus or draw

77%

Lanus or Universidad Catolica

75%

Draw or Universidad Catolica

49%

Winning margin

Lanus wins by 2+

27%

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Lanus 1+ goals

79%

Lanus 2+ goals

46%

Lanus 3+ goals

21%

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals

62%

Universidad Catolica 2+ goals

25%

Universidad Catolica 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Lanus (draw refunded)

69%

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lanus at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.79 · 24 matches

Universidad Catolica away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lanus attack 1.79 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.56

Universidad Catolica attack 1.13 + Lanus defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lanus scores more

51%

level

25%

Universidad Catolica scores more

23%

Lanus at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Lanus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

N. Orsini

Lanus · F

8.7

Match Events

53'

Lautaro Acosta↳ C. Auzqui

64'

L. Chicaiza← J. Tévez

65'

B. de Jesús← B. Vides

70'

Bryan Alejandro De Jesus

71'

F. Belluschi← M. Esquivel

75'

N. Orsini← C. Auzqui

75'

N. Orsini↳ Lautaro Acosta

76'

Nicolas Orsini

80'

N. Orsini↳ E. Muñoz

81'

Guillermo Burdisso

81'

J. Betancourt← J. Chala

83'

F. Pérez← F. Quignón

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LanusUniversidad

Overview

63%Possession37%

21Total Shots4

4Corners7

16Fouls13

Shots

21Total Shots4

8On Target0

8Off Target3

5Blocked1

12Inside Box2

9Outside Box2

Passing

63%Possession37%

587Total Passes337

505Accurate Passes252

86%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

16Fouls13

2Yellow Cards1

3Offsides0

Match Recap: Lanus vs Universidad Catolica

Lanus beat Universidad Catolica 3-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on February 12, 2020.

Goals: Lautaro Acosta (53'), N. Orsini (75', 80').

Lanus controlled possession (63%) and registered 21 shots to 4.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Lanús - Néstor Díaz Pérez in Lanús, Provincia de Buenos Aires.

Lanus vs Universidad Catolica — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Lanus vs Universidad Catolica