Universidad Catolica 3–2 Independiente

Universidad Catolica

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Independiente

Luis Amarilla 90'

Walter Chala 79'

Bruno Vides 20' (pen)

Pablo Hernandez 72'

Martin Benitez 49'

8/2/2019

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 8th FinalsOlimpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Universidad Catolica47%

×Draw26%

Independiente28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universidad CatolicaExpected goals in this matchIndependiente

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.11

Universidad Catolica

1.52

Independiente

1.11

Universidad Catolica creates 37% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 19 away

1.73

creates per match

1.63

0.60

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Universidad Catolica

1.73

Independiente

1.63

allows per match

Universidad Catolica

0.60

Independiente

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universidad Catolica+0.00on par

Independiente+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad Catolica ↓

Independiente →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Universidad Catolica or draw

72%

Universidad Catolica or Independiente

74%

Draw or Independiente

53%

Winning margin

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+

23%

Independiente wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals

78%

Universidad Catolica 2+ goals

45%

Universidad Catolica 3+ goals

20%

Independiente 1+ goals

67%

Independiente 2+ goals

30%

Independiente 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)

63%

Independiente (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad Catolica at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

Independiente away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad Catolica attack 1.73 + Independiente defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.52

Independiente attack 1.63 + Universidad Catolica defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Universidad Catolica scores more

47%

level

26%

Independiente scores more

28%

Universidad Catolica at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Universidad Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

Walter Chala

Universidad Catolica · M

9.0

Match Events

8'

Fabricio Bustos← Cecilio Dominguez

11'

Guillermo De los Santos

20'

Bruno VidesPenalty

26'

Guillermo De los Santos

26'

Guillermo De los Santos

46'

Edison Javier Carcelen← Bruno Vides

46'

Cristian Chavez← Francisco Silva

49'

Martin Benitez↳ Fabricio Bustos

65'

Gustavo Orlando Cortez

72'

Pablo Hernandez↳ Cristian Chavez

75'

Pablo Perez← Martin Benitez

78'

Diego Armas← Christian Oña

78'

Jonathan Betancourt← Jeison Chala

79'

Walter Chala↳ Luis Amarilla

87'

Yuber Mosquera

88'

Pablo Hernandez

90'

Luis Amarilla↳ Walter Chala

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UniversidadIndependiente

Overview

53%Possession47%

16Total Shots9

7Corners1

12Fouls10

Shots

16Total Shots9

4On Target3

9Off Target5

3Blocked1

10Inside Box4

6Outside Box5

Passing

53%Possession47%

415Total Passes382

339Accurate Passes310

82%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls10

4Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

0Offsides1