Independiente 1–0 Universidad Catolica

Independiente

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Universidad Catolica

P. Hernández 55'

7/26/2019

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 8th FinalsEstadio Libertadores de América (Avellaneda, Provincia de Buenos Aires)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Independiente54%

×Draw26%

Universidad Catolica20%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IndependienteExpected goals in this matchUniversidad Catolica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.84

Independiente

1.56

Universidad Catolica

0.84

Independiente creates 86% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 15 away

1.78

creates per match

1.13

0.56

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Independiente

1.78

Universidad Catolica

1.13

allows per match

Independiente

0.56

Universidad Catolica

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente+0.00on par

Universidad Catolica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente ↓

Universidad Catolica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Independiente or draw

80%

Independiente or Universidad Catolica

74%

Draw or Universidad Catolica

46%

Winning margin

Independiente wins by 2+

29%

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Independiente 1+ goals

79%

Independiente 2+ goals

46%

Independiente 3+ goals

21%

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals

57%

Universidad Catolica 2+ goals

21%

Universidad Catolica 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Independiente (draw refunded)

73%

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.56 · 18 matches

Universidad Catolica away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente attack 1.78 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.56

Universidad Catolica attack 1.13 + Independiente defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Independiente scores more

54%

level

26%

Universidad Catolica scores more

20%

Independiente at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Independiente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'

P. Hernández↳ C. Domínguez

70'

C. Chávez← C. Domínguez

75'

L. González← P. Hernández

77'

D. Armas← B. Vides

78'

S. Romero← G. Silva

85'

B. Oña← W. Chalá

90'

M. Rodríguez← F. Martínez

Independiente

Universidad

12

17

25

6

10

▼

Martínez

5

Oña

15

Cortez

16

▼

Chalá

23

▼

28

11

25

6

20

▼

16

4

2

19

⚽

▼

5

7

29

11

A

▼

Domínguez

Manager: S. Beccacece

70'▲C. Chávez←▼C. Domínguez

75'▲L. González←▼P. Hernández

78'▲S. Romero←▼G. Silva

Independiente substitutes

23Chávez17González18Romero24Barreto13Soñora1Álvarez22Silva9Velasco30Verón

Manager: S. Escobar

77'▲D. Armas←▼B. Vides

85'▲B. Oña←▼W. Chalá

90'▲M. Rodríguez←▼F. Martínez

Universidad Catolica substitutes

4Armas13Oña20Rodríguez24Clavijo3Carcelén22Mosquera

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Independiente 1–0 Universidad Catolica

Independiente beat Universidad Catolica 1-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on July 26, 2019.

Goals: P. Hernández (55').

The match was played at Estadio Libertadores de América (Avellaneda, Provincia de Buenos Aires).

Independiente vs Universidad Catolica — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Independiente 1–0 Universidad Catolica