Universidad Catolica 6–0 Fuerza Amarilla

Universidad Catolica

FT

6 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Fuerza Amarilla

3/5/2019

Liga Pro · Round 4Olimpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Universidad Catolica70%

×Draw18%

Fuerza Amarilla12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universidad CatolicaExpected goals in this matchFuerza Amarilla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

0.81

Universidad Catolica

2.29

Fuerza Amarilla

0.81

Universidad Catolica creates 183% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 15 away

1.92

creates per match

0.60

1.03

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Universidad Catolica

1.92

Fuerza Amarilla

0.60

allows per match

Universidad Catolica

1.03

Fuerza Amarilla

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universidad Catolica+0.00on par

Fuerza Amarilla+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad Catolica ↓

Fuerza Amarilla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Universidad Catolica or draw

88%

Universidad Catolica or Fuerza Amarilla

82%

Draw or Fuerza Amarilla

30%

Winning margin

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+

47%

Fuerza Amarilla wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals

90%

Universidad Catolica 2+ goals

66%

Universidad Catolica 3+ goals

40%

Fuerza Amarilla 1+ goals

56%

Fuerza Amarilla 2+ goals

19%

Fuerza Amarilla 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)

86%

Fuerza Amarilla (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad Catolica at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.03 · 132 matches

Fuerza Amarilla away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad Catolica attack 1.92 + Fuerza Amarilla defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.29

Fuerza Amarilla attack 0.60 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Universidad Catolica scores more

70%

level

18%

Fuerza Amarilla scores more

12%

Universidad Catolica at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Universidad Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff