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Fuerza Amarilla vs Universidad Catolica — Liga Pro 2018

Fuerza Amarilla
Fuerza Amarilla
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Universidad Catolica
Universidad Catolica
7/28/2019Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 19Estadio 9 de Mayo (Machala)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Fuerza Amarilla23%
×Draw23%
Universidad Catolica54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fuerza Amarilla
1.13
Universidad Catolica
1.84

Universidad Catolica creates 63% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 131 away

creates per match

Fuerza Amarilla
1.00
Universidad Catolica
1.41

allows per match

Fuerza Amarilla
2.27
Universidad Catolica
1.25

finishing

Fuerza Amarilla+0.00on par
Universidad Catolica+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fuerza Amarilla ↓

Universidad Catolica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Fuerza Amarilla or draw
46%
Fuerza Amarilla or Universidad Catolica
77%
Draw or Universidad Catolica
77%

Winning margin

Fuerza Amarilla wins by 2+
9%
Universidad Catolica wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Fuerza Amarilla 1+ goals
68%
Fuerza Amarilla 2+ goals
31%
Fuerza Amarilla 3+ goals
11%
Universidad Catolica 1+ goals
84%
Universidad Catolica 2+ goals
55%
Universidad Catolica 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Fuerza Amarilla (draw refunded)
30%
Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fuerza Amarilla at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

Universidad Catolica away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.25 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fuerza Amarilla attack 1.00 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Universidad Catolica attack 1.41 + Fuerza Amarilla defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Fuerza Amarilla scores more
23%
level
23%
Universidad Catolica scores more
54%

Universidad Catolica at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Universidad Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro: Fuerza Amarilla 1–2 Universidad Catolica

Universidad Catolica beat Fuerza Amarilla 2-1 in Liga Pro on July 28, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio 9 de Mayo (Machala).