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Universidad Catolica vs FBC Melgar — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Universidad Catolica
Universidad Catolica
FT
6 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
FBC Melgar
FBC Melgar
Gustavo Orlando Cortez 90'
Bryan Oña 78'
Walter Chalá 57'
Bruno Vides 42' (pen)
Jeison Chalá 31'
Edison Carcelen 24'
5/21/2019CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · 2nd RoundOlimpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Universidad Catolica64%
×Draw22%
FBC Melgar14%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universidad Catolica
1.80
FBC Melgar
0.68

Universidad Catolica creates 165% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 16 away

creates per match

Universidad Catolica
1.73
FBC Melgar
0.75

allows per match

Universidad Catolica
0.60
FBC Melgar
1.88

finishing

Universidad Catolica+0.00on par
FBC Melgar+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad Catolica ↓

FBC Melgar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Universidad Catolica or draw
86%
Universidad Catolica or FBC Melgar
78%
Draw or FBC Melgar
36%

Winning margin

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+
38%
FBC Melgar wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals
83%
Universidad Catolica 2+ goals
54%
Universidad Catolica 3+ goals
27%
FBC Melgar 1+ goals
49%
FBC Melgar 2+ goals
15%
FBC Melgar 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)
83%
FBC Melgar (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad Catolica at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

FBC Melgar away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad Catolica attack 1.73 + FBC Melgar defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.80

FBC Melgar attack 0.75 + Universidad Catolica defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Universidad Catolica scores more
64%
level
22%
FBC Melgar scores more
14%

Universidad Catolica at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Universidad Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
Diego ArmasUniversidad CatolicaUniversidad Catolica · M
8.2

Match Events

23'
Giancarlo Carmona
24'
Edison Carcelen↳ Diego Armas
31'
Jeison Chalá↳ Facundo Martinez
42'
Bruno VidesPenalty
46'
Carlos Neyra← Leonardo Mifflin
46'
Alexi Edwin Gomez← Johnny Vidales
48'
Carlos Neyra
57'
Walter Chalá↳ Diego Armas
63'
Alexi Edwin Gomez
75'
Alexi Edwin Gomez
75'
Alexi Edwin Gomez
76'
Bryan Oña← Walter Chalá
76'
Matías Rodríguez← Diego Armas
78'
Bryan Oña↳ Facundo Martinez
80'
Bruno Vides← Bruno Vides
80'
Dahwling Leudo← Nicolás Freitas
90'
Gustavo Orlando Cortez↳ Matías Rodríguez

Possession

61%Universidad

Shots

12Universidad

Pass accuracy

52%Universidad

Statistics

UniversidadFBC
Overview
61%Possession39%
12Total Shots9
6Corners2
6Fouls9
Shots
12Total Shots9
9On Target5
3Off Target3
0Blocked1
6Inside Box4
6Outside Box5
Passing
61%Possession39%
600Total Passes366
521Accurate Passes295
87%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
5Saves3
Discipline
6Fouls9
0Yellow Cards4
–Red Cards1
3Offsides4

Match Recap: Universidad Catolica vs FBC Melgar

Universidad Catolica beat FBC Melgar 6-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on May 21, 2019.

Goals: Edison Carcelen (24'), Jeison Chalá (31'), Bruno Vides (42' pen), Walter Chalá (57'), Bryan Oña (78'), Gustavo Orlando Cortez (90').

Universidad Catolica controlled possession (61%) and registered 12 shots to 9.

The match was played at Olimpico Atahualpa in Quito.