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FBC Melgar vs Universidad Catolica — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

FBC Melgar
FBC Melgar
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Universidad Catolica
Universidad Catolica
5/28/2019CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · 2nd RoundEstadio Monumental de la UNSA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

FBC Melgar46%
×Draw28%
Universidad Catolica26%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FBC Melgar
1.35
Universidad Catolica
0.94

FBC Melgar creates 44% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 15 away

creates per match

FBC Melgar
1.38
Universidad Catolica
1.13

allows per match

FBC Melgar
0.75
Universidad Catolica
1.33

finishing

FBC Melgar+0.00on par
Universidad Catolica+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FBC Melgar ↓

Universidad Catolica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

FBC Melgar or draw
74%
FBC Melgar or Universidad Catolica
72%
Draw or Universidad Catolica
54%

Winning margin

FBC Melgar wins by 2+
22%
Universidad Catolica wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

FBC Melgar 1+ goals
74%
FBC Melgar 2+ goals
39%
FBC Melgar 3+ goals
15%
Universidad Catolica 1+ goals
61%
Universidad Catolica 2+ goals
24%
Universidad Catolica 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FBC Melgar (draw refunded)
64%
Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FBC Melgar at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.75 · 16 matches

Universidad Catolica away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FBC Melgar attack 1.38 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.35

Universidad Catolica attack 1.13 + FBC Melgar defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FBC Melgar scores more
46%
level
28%
Universidad Catolica scores more
26%

FBC Melgar at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FBC Melgar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
Carlos CácedaFBC MelgarFBC Melgar · G
8.2

Match Events

46'
Hideyoshi Arakaki← Hideyoshi Arakaki
55'
Gino Guerrero
57'
Guillermo De los Santos
66'
Paolo Fuentes
66'
Jonathan Betancourt← Diego Armas
69'
Angel Romero← Hernán Hinostroza
72'
Bernardo Cuesta
75'
Johnny Vidales
77'
Matías Rodríguez← Walter Chalá
78'
Angel Romero
79'
Carlos Neyra
80'
Walter Tandazo← Alexis Arias
82'
Dahwling Leudo
87'
Jhon Narvaez
88'
Bryan Oña← Jeison Chalá

Possession

52%FBC

Shots

7FBC

Pass accuracy

49%FBC

Statistics

FBCUniversidad
Overview
52%Possession48%
7Total Shots15
2Corners5
20Fouls8
Shots
7Total Shots15
5On Target5
2Off Target10
4Inside Box8
3Outside Box7
Passing
52%Possession48%
534Total Passes491
440Accurate Passes411
82%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
5Saves5
Discipline
20Fouls8
8Yellow Cards1
5Offsides1

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: FBC Melgar 0–0 Universidad Catolica

FBC Melgar and Universidad Catolica drew 0-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on May 28, 2019.

FBC Melgar controlled possession (52%) and registered 7 shots to 15.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental de la UNSA in Arequipa.