Universidad Catolica 3–1 Defensa Y Justicia

Universidad Catolica

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Defensa Y Justicia

4/25/2025

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 3Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Universidad Catolica50%

×Draw26%

Defensa Y Justicia24%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universidad CatolicaExpected goals in this matchDefensa Y Justicia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.99

Universidad Catolica

1.55

Defensa Y Justicia

0.99

Universidad Catolica creates 57% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 21 away

1.73

creates per match

1.38

0.60

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Universidad Catolica

1.73

Defensa Y Justicia

1.38

allows per match

Universidad Catolica

0.60

Defensa Y Justicia

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universidad Catolica+0.00on par

Defensa Y Justicia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad Catolica ↓

Defensa Y Justicia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Universidad Catolica or draw

76%

Universidad Catolica or Defensa Y Justicia

74%

Draw or Defensa Y Justicia

50%

Winning margin

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+

26%

Defensa Y Justicia wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals

79%

Universidad Catolica 2+ goals

46%

Universidad Catolica 3+ goals

20%

Defensa Y Justicia 1+ goals

63%

Defensa Y Justicia 2+ goals

26%

Defensa Y Justicia 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)

68%

Defensa Y Justicia (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad Catolica at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

Defensa Y Justicia away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.38 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad Catolica attack 1.73 + Defensa Y Justicia defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.55

Defensa Y Justicia attack 1.38 + Universidad Catolica defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Universidad Catolica scores more

50%

level

26%

Defensa Y Justicia scores more

24%

Universidad Catolica at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Universidad Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff