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Defensa Y Justicia vs Universidad Catolica — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2019

Defensa Y Justicia
Defensa Y Justicia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Universidad Catolica
Universidad Catolica
5/14/2025CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 5Estadio Norberto Tomaghello

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Defensa Y Justicia40%
×Draw28%
Universidad Catolica32%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Defensa Y Justicia
1.27
Universidad Catolica
1.11

Defensa Y Justicia creates 14% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 15 away

creates per match

Defensa Y Justicia
1.20
Universidad Catolica
1.13

allows per match

Defensa Y Justicia
1.10
Universidad Catolica
1.33

finishing

Defensa Y Justicia+0.00on par
Universidad Catolica+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensa Y Justicia ↓

Universidad Catolica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Defensa Y Justicia or draw
68%
Defensa Y Justicia or Universidad Catolica
72%
Draw or Universidad Catolica
60%

Winning margin

Defensa Y Justicia wins by 2+
18%
Universidad Catolica wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Defensa Y Justicia 1+ goals
72%
Defensa Y Justicia 2+ goals
36%
Defensa Y Justicia 3+ goals
14%
Universidad Catolica 1+ goals
67%
Universidad Catolica 2+ goals
30%
Universidad Catolica 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Defensa Y Justicia (draw refunded)
55%
Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensa Y Justicia at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.10 · 20 matches

Universidad Catolica away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensa Y Justicia attack 1.20 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Universidad Catolica attack 1.13 + Defensa Y Justicia defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Defensa Y Justicia scores more
40%
level
28%
Universidad Catolica scores more
32%

Defensa Y Justicia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Defensa Y Justicia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Defensa Y Justicia 1–1 Universidad Catolica

Defensa Y Justicia and Universidad Catolica drew 1-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on May 14, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Norberto Tomaghello in Gobernador Julio A. Costa.