Universidad Catolica 0–0 Cruzeiro: Result & Stats

Universidad Catolica

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cruzeiro

4/5/2024

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 1Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Universidad Catolica49%

×Draw29%

Cruzeiro22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universidad CatolicaExpected goals in this matchCruzeiro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.75

Universidad Catolica

1.27

Cruzeiro

0.75

Universidad Catolica creates 69% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 10 away

1.73

creates per match

0.90

0.60

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Universidad Catolica

1.73

Cruzeiro

0.90

allows per match

Universidad Catolica

0.60

Cruzeiro

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universidad Catolica+0.00on par

Cruzeiro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad Catolica ↓

Cruzeiro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Universidad Catolica or draw

78%

Universidad Catolica or Cruzeiro

71%

Draw or Cruzeiro

51%

Winning margin

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+

22%

Cruzeiro wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals

72%

Universidad Catolica 2+ goals

36%

Universidad Catolica 3+ goals

14%

Cruzeiro 1+ goals

53%

Cruzeiro 2+ goals

17%

Cruzeiro 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)

69%

Cruzeiro (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad Catolica at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

Cruzeiro away — creates 0.90, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad Catolica attack 1.73 + Cruzeiro defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.27

Cruzeiro attack 0.90 + Universidad Catolica defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Universidad Catolica scores more

49%

level

29%

Cruzeiro scores more

22%

Universidad Catolica at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Universidad Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

G. Vallecilla

Universidad Catolica · D

7.7

Match Events

23'

Facundo Martinez

61'

L. Romero← Ramiro

61'

Marlon← Á. Barreal

61'

Matheus Pereira← Mateus Vital

71'

A. Rodríguez← K. Quevedo

71'

J. Fajardo← J. Cifuente

71'

Rafa Silva← Rafael Elias

80'

Zé Ivaldo

83'

João Marcelo← Zé Ivaldo

84'

M. Díaz← F. Martínez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UniversidadCruzeiro

Overview

59%Possession41%

14Total Shots4

7Corners0

10Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots4

2On Target2

10Off Target2

2Blocked0

5Inside Box2

9Outside Box2

Passing

59%Possession41%

525Total Passes374

460Accurate Passes303

88%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls13

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides3

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Universidad Catolica 0–0 Cruzeiro

Universidad Catolica and Cruzeiro drew 0-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on April 5, 2024.

Universidad Catolica controlled possession (59%) and registered 14 shots to 4.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa in Quito.

Universidad Catolica vs Cruzeiro — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Universidad Catolica 0–0 Cruzeiro