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Cruzeiro vs Universidad Catolica — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Universidad Catolica
Universidad Catolica
Rafa Silva 80'
5/31/2024CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 6Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Cruzeiro42%
×Draw28%
Universidad Catolica31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cruzeiro
1.29
Universidad Catolica
1.06

Cruzeiro creates 22% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 15 away

creates per match

Cruzeiro
1.25
Universidad Catolica
1.13

allows per match

Cruzeiro
1.00
Universidad Catolica
1.33

finishing

Cruzeiro+0.00on par
Universidad Catolica+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cruzeiro ↓

Universidad Catolica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cruzeiro or draw
69%
Cruzeiro or Universidad Catolica
72%
Draw or Universidad Catolica
58%

Winning margin

Cruzeiro wins by 2+
19%
Universidad Catolica wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cruzeiro 1+ goals
72%
Cruzeiro 2+ goals
37%
Cruzeiro 3+ goals
14%
Universidad Catolica 1+ goals
65%
Universidad Catolica 2+ goals
29%
Universidad Catolica 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Cruzeiro (draw refunded)
58%
Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cruzeiro at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Universidad Catolica away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cruzeiro attack 1.25 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Universidad Catolica attack 1.13 + Cruzeiro defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cruzeiro scores more
42%
level
28%
Universidad Catolica scores more
31%

Cruzeiro at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cruzeiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
Zé IvaldoCruzeiroCruzeiro · D
7.9

Match Events

39'
José Fajardo
46'
Robert← Á. Barreal
63'
K. Quevedo← M. Díaz
72'
Vitinho← Gabriel Veron
75'
J. Castillo← J. Fajardo
80'
Rafa Silva
87'
A. Rodríguez← G. Anangonó
87'
J. Cifuente← E. Clavijo
90+3'
Ramiro← L. Romero

Possession

62%Cruzeiro

Shots

16Cruzeiro

Pass accuracy

53%Cruzeiro

Statistics

CruzeiroUniversidad
Overview
62%Possession38%
16Total Shots6
9Corners4
7Fouls10
Shots
16Total Shots6
6On Target3
7Off Target1
3Blocked2
11Inside Box3
5Outside Box3
Passing
62%Possession38%
475Total Passes303
404Accurate Passes227
85%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
7Fouls10
0Yellow Cards1
2Offsides1

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Cruzeiro 1–0 Universidad Catolica

Cruzeiro beat Universidad Catolica 1-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on May 31, 2024.

Goals: Rafa Silva (80').

Cruzeiro controlled possession (62%) and registered 16 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais.