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Universidad Catolica vs Cerro Largo — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2019

Universidad Catolica
Universidad Catolica
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Cerro Largo
Cerro Largo
4/11/2025CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 2Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Universidad Catolica61%
×Draw23%
Cerro Largo16%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universidad Catolica
1.72
Cerro Largo
0.73

Universidad Catolica creates 136% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 7 away

creates per match

Universidad Catolica
1.73
Cerro Largo
0.86

allows per match

Universidad Catolica
0.60
Cerro Largo
1.71

finishing

Universidad Catolica+0.00on par
Cerro Largo+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad Catolica ↓

Cerro Largo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Universidad Catolica or draw
84%
Universidad Catolica or Cerro Largo
77%
Draw or Cerro Largo
39%

Winning margin

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+
35%
Cerro Largo wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals
82%
Universidad Catolica 2+ goals
51%
Universidad Catolica 3+ goals
25%
Cerro Largo 1+ goals
52%
Cerro Largo 2+ goals
17%
Cerro Largo 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)
80%
Cerro Largo (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad Catolica at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

Cerro Largo away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad Catolica attack 1.73 + Cerro Largo defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.72

Cerro Largo attack 0.86 + Universidad Catolica defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Universidad Catolica scores more
61%
level
23%
Cerro Largo scores more
16%

Universidad Catolica at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Universidad Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Universidad Catolica 3–1 Cerro Largo

Universidad Catolica beat Cerro Largo 3-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on April 11, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa in Quito.