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Cerro Largo vs Universidad Catolica — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2019

Cerro Largo
Cerro Largo
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Universidad Catolica
Universidad Catolica
5/7/2025CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 4Estadio Centenario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Cerro Largo25%
×Draw27%
Universidad Catolica48%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cerro Largo
0.92
Universidad Catolica
1.40

Universidad Catolica creates 52% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 15 away

creates per match

Cerro Largo
0.50
Universidad Catolica
1.13

allows per match

Cerro Largo
1.67
Universidad Catolica
1.33

finishing

Cerro Largo+0.00on par
Universidad Catolica+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cerro Largo ↓

Universidad Catolica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–210%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cerro Largo or draw
52%
Cerro Largo or Universidad Catolica
73%
Draw or Universidad Catolica
75%

Winning margin

Cerro Largo wins by 2+
8%
Universidad Catolica wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Cerro Largo 1+ goals
60%
Cerro Largo 2+ goals
23%
Cerro Largo 3+ goals
7%
Universidad Catolica 1+ goals
75%
Universidad Catolica 2+ goals
41%
Universidad Catolica 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Cerro Largo (draw refunded)
34%
Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cerro Largo at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Universidad Catolica away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cerro Largo attack 0.50 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.92

Universidad Catolica attack 1.13 + Cerro Largo defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cerro Largo scores more
25%
level
27%
Universidad Catolica scores more
48%

Universidad Catolica at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Universidad Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cerro Largo vs Universidad Catolica

Universidad Catolica beat Cerro Largo 3-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on May 7, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Centenario in Montevideo.